Orcatron's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -2.65
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Orcatron bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
- American politics 2023: At least two bills pass that violate the “Hastert Rule”/majority-of-the-majority principle?NOṀ100
- Will Apple replace the goggles emoji 🥽 (U+1F97D) with a graphic of the Apple Vision Pro by end of Q2 2024?NOṀ50
- Will Cruise give notice for a mass layoff (50+ employees) before the end of 2023YESṀ50
50%
60%
70%
80%
- NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Green Bay Packers win their MNF NFL Game against the New York Giants on Dec11?NOṀ180
- NFL🏈: Week 12 -- Will the Green Bay Packers win their NFL Game against the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day 2023 11/23YESṀ110
- Conditional on Microsoft Bing using an AI/GPT module, will it be any good?YESṀ100
90%
- NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Dallas Cowboys win their NFL Game against the Philadelphia Eagles on Dec10?YESṀ500
- NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Dallas Cowboys win their NFL Game against the Philadelphia Eagles on Dec10?YESṀ500
- NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Dallas Cowboys win their NFL Game against the Philadelphia Eagles on Dec10?YESṀ500
95%
- NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Dallas Cowboys win their NFL Game against the Philadelphia Eagles on Dec10?YESṀ500
- I am going to use GPT-4 to generate five questions on Manifold over the next five days. Will this be profitable?YESṀ250
- NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Cleveland Browns win their NFL Game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Dec10?YESṀ240
97%
- NFL🏈: Will the San Francisco Niners claim the Top Spot in NFC and get the First Round BYE?YESṀ1,000
- NFL🏈:Week 15: Will the Baltimore Ravens win their 12/17 NFL Game against the Jacksonville Jaguars by more than 9.5 pts?YESṀ100
- Will more than 500 Palestinians be killed by Israeli forces during 2023?YESṀ10
99%
- NFL🏈: Week 15: Will the Detroit Lions win their 12/16 NFL game against the Denver Broncos by more than 7.5pts?YESṀ1,500
- NFL🏈: Week 15-Will the San Francisco 49ers win their 12/17 NFL game vs. the Arizona Cardinals by more than 13.5 pts?YESṀ500
- NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the New Orleans Saints win their NFL Game against the Carolina Panthers on Dec10?YESṀ210