If you ask me a question whose answer will help you refine your PDF, I'll happily respond over DM to give you 24h to insider-trade on the information for 24h before publicizing the answer. I'll subsidize this market heavily to counteract the no-trade-theorem consequences.

About me, to refine your PDF

• I'm a ~32yo male software engineer in Seattle.

  • (Update 2023-10-01) Not married, no kids. Living with friends, same housing arrangement as my last multi-month period of unemployment.

• This market's predicate ("2mo of unemployment") is very likely to happen: I strongly expect to leave my current job by 2024-01-01 due mostly to accelerating-the-AI-pocalypse concerns, and I won't be in a great hurry to get a new one.

• I've had two multi-month periods of unemployment in my adult life (~5yr ago and ~2yr ago); I felt aimless during both. (So Laplace says this market should be at 75%.)

• I intend to spend my time (a) deliberate-practicing learning new SWE skills, (b) practicing working with AI, (c) recreationally learning Science Stuff, and (d) job-hunting using high-variance techniques (e.g. "I'll work for you for free for two weeks and then leave or sign depending on my general vibes" (such a deal would restart this market's 2mo timer)).

Market resolution

• YES or NO: as soon as I've spent 2mo unemployed, I'll review my last two weeks of journal entries and assess whether I've been feeling listless or not.

• N/A: as soon as it becomes clear I won't spend 2mo unemployed by 2024-04-01 (e.g. if I'm still at my current job on 2024-02-01, I'll resolve N/A immediately).