If I'm voluntarily unemployed for much of the next 6mo, will I feel aimless after 2mo?
Apr 2

If you ask me a question whose answer will help you refine your PDF, I'll happily respond over DM to give you 24h to insider-trade on the information for 24h before publicizing the answer. I'll subsidize this market heavily to counteract the no-trade-theorem consequences.

About me, to refine your PDF

  • I'm a ~32yo male software engineer in Seattle.

    • (Update 2023-10-01) Not married, no kids. Living with friends, same housing arrangement as my last multi-month period of unemployment.

  • This market's predicate ("2mo of unemployment") is very likely to happen: I strongly expect to leave my current job by 2024-01-01 due mostly to accelerating-the-AI-pocalypse concerns, and I won't be in a great hurry to get a new one.

  • I've had two multi-month periods of unemployment in my adult life (~5yr ago and ~2yr ago); I felt aimless during both. (So Laplace says this market should be at 75%.)

  • I intend to spend my time (a) deliberate-practicing learning new SWE skills, (b) practicing working with AI, (c) recreationally learning Science Stuff, and (d) job-hunting using high-variance techniques (e.g. "I'll work for you for free for two weeks and then leave or sign depending on my general vibes" (such a deal would restart this market's 2mo timer)).

Market resolution

  • YES or NO: as soon as I've spent 2mo unemployed, I'll review my last two weeks of journal entries and assess whether I've been feeling listless or not.

  • N/A: as soon as it becomes clear I won't spend 2mo unemployed by 2024-04-01 (e.g. if I'm still at my current job on 2024-02-01, I'll resolve N/A immediately).

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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oh I forgot about this market - he quit about a month ago. I saw him at a meetup recently and he seemed pretty content so far
@OptimizationProcess how's it going?

@shankypanky I have definitely felt listless for the last week-ish! (But that doesn't match this market's resolution criteria.)

@OptimizationProcess have you been passionate about any topics/hobbies in the recent (0-24 months) past? If so, care to share?

Also, have you had much luck with the high variance job search techniques?

@RobertCousineau Well, I like prediction markets. 😛 I spent today energetically rebuilding biatob.com using a new tool (convex.dev) that I find enchanting. In the last year-ish, I got non-trivially passionate about (a) learning Lojban, (b) learning quantum mechanics, (c) learning the kalimba, (d) nonzero-sum board games, and (e) the idea of video games that revolve around information propagation delay, like "StarCraft except you can't move the camera, you need to send out runners to carry messages to your troops and report back." And maybe other stuff I've forgotten!

I haven't started job-hunting yet! Not at all. Maybe I should, at least on the back burner.

bought Ṁ250 NO from 64% to 62%

is it official? you're unemployed now right?

predicts YES

@shankypanky I will be by Feb 1! Haven't quit yet, but this market won't N/A unless I get a job between then and April (unlikely).

@OptimizationProcess sounds like you have a lot of stuff planned that will keep you occupied. do you tend to feel both busy and aimless? do personal projects feel purposeful?

predicts YES

@shankypanky I definitely have the ability to feel both busy and aimless! And have often felt so in the past. Personal projects... sometimes feel purposeful? But usually not!

bought Ṁ20 of YES

due mostly to accelerating-the-AI-pocalypse concerns

This made me bet yes.

Are you married? Do you have kids? How does your personal/home/romantic life now compare to other times when you were unemployed?