OperationIvy85's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.3
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when OperationIvy85 bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
- Will Lav turn on and/or speak out about abuse from MrGirl after the article comes out within 1 month?NOṀ10
- Will Destiny's video "Adin Ross And Sneako Team Up To Confront Destiny" get 500k Views before 1. AprilNOṀ10
- Will I get Mythic on MTG Arena in 2023? (I just learned about its deceitful & exploitable secret ranking system, but might still try normally.)NOṀ10
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%