Onesimus Malatji's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.74
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Onesimus Malatji bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
50%
- Will Russia give a nuclear ultimatum to Ukraine and/or it's Western allies during 2022?NOṀ10
- Global recession is coming, people and companies are exiting to cryptoYESṀ10
- Some women will never have partners, even cheating will never work for them because the way they are. Just dangerous to have them aroundYESṀ10
70%
80%
90%