On 2026-09-26 a group in Freiburg, Germany and a group in Munich, Germany will separately but at the same time celebrate Petrov Day. Each group will have a digital opportunity to launch a missile at the other group and then a 5 minute window to retaliate. There is about a 1% chance of a false alarm per group, that is indistinguishable from a real incoming missile. On "real" missile impact each group will carry out a self-destructive action they precommited to.

Which group will launch a missile (does not matter if as aggressor or to retaliate)? An incoming false alarm does not count as a missile for either group, but responding to a false alarm with a missile is, of course, a launch, which could make the other group retaliate in turn.

The digital tool that will be used: https://petrov.rationality-munich.com/

Zvi house rules apply.