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I'm confident enough to resolve this market after:

• Reading and seeing a handful of articles discussing Santos' creation of a Cameo account

• Checking out the account and watching numerous of his videos (including one commissioned by Fetterman)

• Hearing random people talking about it

I agree Cameo is probably the right resolution, but can that be his next “primary income“? He will not be able to go to Vegas if Cameo is his only income. I mean how many people pay him for a greeting?

@Marq I did some reading on the matter. Sarah Palin was able to make over $200k annually off of Cameo 😮 In Santos' case, he seems to be getting a ton of orders and is incrementally increasing the cost per video.

Closed the market as reports are coming out about Santos' new Cameo account. Gonna wait a while to see how this shakes out, but that's likely the resolution.

Who's going to pay him for a book when there's already a legit biography "The Fabulist" optioned for HBO? https://deadline.com/2023/12/george-santos-movie-hbo-films-frank-rich-1235649730/

Maybe he'll go on OnlyFans and people will pay to NOT have to see it.

I think this one has to resolve NO even if he goes to prison because the resolution criteria ask what his next primary source of income will be, not just what will happen to him in some time frame.

@PlasmaBallin Edited option from "Goes to prison" to "Crowdfunding for legal defense", at G$'s request. Also updated market question name to address confusion. Might even make a new market that's more open-ended.

@OllieG I think this is a distinctly different answer that shouldn't count as the same thing

@PlasmaBallin Site isn't working well for me at the moment, but I will offer refunds.

how will his source of income be prison?

@PaulMaynard Edited option from "Goes to prison" to "Crowdfunding for legal defense", at @G_'s request. Also updated market question name to address confusion. Might even make a new market that's more open-ended.

This says "primary source of income", implying the most significant, yet there are multiple options here with >50% chance.

@MilfordHammerschmidt I guess the way I think of it, he currently has no (known?) income source (listed as an option). So whatever comes first will be his only source of income at the time and the market will resolve. So really it's "what's next and first"

@OllieG So will the other markets be resolved NO in that case?

@MilfordHammerschmidt Yes. Perhaps if in 6 months the NYT writes an article stating "Santos staying afloat by book deal money and employment at a lobbying firm," both those options would be resolved YES.

@OllieG I don't think you can resolve options as NO and then re-resolve them several months later as YES. You will need to make a decision within a certain week or so.

@MilfordHammerschmidt Yes. Description states "Will resolve as soon as at least one of these options come to fruition." It's what's next AND first.

@OllieG Ok, so it sounds like if George Santos gets a book deal in ~1 month, and it's not reported that he is also working for a lobbying firm, then the book deal option will be resolved YES, and all of the other ones will be resolved NO, correct? And perhaps it should say primary source(s) in case he gets a book deal and starts to work for a lobbying firm at the same time?

@MilfordHammerschmidt That suggests an arbitrage opportunity to bet no against all options that total over 100%.

Update: changed "Hired by a consulting firm" to "Hired by a consulting or lobbying firm"

@NoyaV @Anovak if this changes your bet, lemme know and I will refund.

@OllieG I'll still predict No, I'm thinking that he'll be too disliked for a lobbying group to want to associate with him.

@OllieG Nah, I'm keeping it!

Viewer or model?

@mattyb It would have to be his primary source of income, per the description. I don't think being an OnlyFans viewer can get you an income.