Old meme's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -5.56
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Old meme bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Before 2024, will I be able to publish a Wikipedia article on a history topic that stays up for 30 days and that has been written by AI?NOṀ53
- Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?NOṀ25
- Will more than 275,000,000 people get at least one shot of the Covid-19 vaccine by March 31st 2023?NOṀ19
70%
80%
90%
- Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?YESṀ101
- Will Xi Jinping still be president of China and Vladimir Putin president of Russia on 1 January 2023YESṀ100
- Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?YESṀ100
95%