Oevrlrod's calibration
Grade: A+, Score: -0.15
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Oevrlrod bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
- Will the upcoming biopic movie “Napoleon” have a rotten tomatoes score higher than 90%?NOṀ10
- Will a national majority of voters vote YES in the upcoming Voice referendum in Australia?NOṀ2
- Will Australia vote affirmatively to add an 'Indigenous Voice to Parliament' into the constitution during 2023?NOṀ2
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
- Will a majority of these eight journalists who criticized Elon Musk be unbanned from Twitter by January 1, 2023?YESṀ500
- Will a majority of these eight journalists who criticized Elon Musk be unbanned from Twitter by February 1, 2023?YESṀ500
- Will Oppenheimer and Barbie perform historically well at the domestic box office on opening weekend?YESṀ200