Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on which price level Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reaches first before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution will be determined by checking the official price history on NASDAQ or Yahoo Finance.

• Hits 150.00 or lower first: Resolves YES if NVDA closes at or below $150.00 before hitting $200.00

• Hits 200.00 or higher first: Resolves YES if NVDA closes at or above $200.00 before hitting $150.00

• Doesn't hit either before EOY 2025: Resolves YES if NVDA never reaches either price level by December 31, 2025

Only the first price level reached will resolve YES; the others resolve NO.

Only during trading hours. After hours don’t count

Background

As of December 1, 2025, Nvidia is trading around $177 per share. The 52-week range is roughly $86.62–$212.19, with the all-time high closing price of $207.04 on October 29, 2025. Wall Street analysts have average 12-month price targets clustering around $250–260, implying roughly 40–50% upside from current levels. The stock has pulled back approximately 14.5% over the last month, though it remains up nearly 30% in 2025.

Considerations

The market requires Nvidia to move significantly in one direction before EOY 2025—either down 15% to $150 or up 13% to $200. Given the stock's recent volatility and the compressed timeframe, reaching $150 would require a substantial reversal from current levels, while $200 represents a return to near-recent highs. The stock has already traded above $200 this year, making that level more recently tested than $150.