Will SMTM answer NCM's post criticizing their Lithium theory?

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This question resolves positively if Slime Mold Time Mold writes a comment on this post: It’s Probably Not Lithium, <https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7iAABhWpcGeP5e6SB/it-s-probably-not-lithium>. or makes a post directly answering it in their own blog.

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Manifold in the wild: On Not Getting Contaminated By The Wrong Obesity

I find it telling that people only defend SMTM by complaining about tone and vibes. I basically wrote off SMTM after they failed to respond to the critiques months ago. https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/will-smtm-answer-ncms-post-criticiz

predicted NO

This market resolves negatively. Since the appearance of the post, SMTM has published: - Total Diet Studies and the Mystery of ICP-MS (<https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2022/07/05/total-diet-studies-and-the-mystery-of-icp-ms/>). Resolves no for reasons explained here: <https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7iAABhWpcGeP5e6SB/it-s-probably-not-lithium?commentId=zQmSTFWuvNXZvPPAi>, and because the post doesn't point to or address the criticism post directly. - LOSE 10.6 POUNDS in FOUR WEEKS with this ONE WEIRD TRICK Discovered by Local Slime Hive Mind! Doctors GRUDGINGLY RESPECT Them, Hope to Become Friends (<https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2022/07/12/lose-10-6-pounds-in-four-weeks-with-this-one-weird-trick-discovered-by-local-slime-hive-mind-doctors-grudgingly-respect-them-hope-to-become-friends/>). It mentions the lithium hypothesis, but it doesn't mention Natalia. - On the Hunt for Ginormous Effect Sizes (<https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2022/07/21/on-the-hunt-for-ginormous-effect-sizes/>) doesn't mention this either. I didn't read all the comments in the original series, but I did search google for keywords: - site:slimemoldtimemold.com Natália Coelho Mendonça / site:slimemoldtimemold.com Natalia Cohelo Mendonza / site:slimemoldtimemold.com Natalia / site:slimemoldtimemold.com Cohelo / site:slimemoldtimemold.com Mendonça - site:slimemoldtimemold.com https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7iAABhWpcGeP5e6SB/it-s-probably-not-lithium?commentId=zQmSTFWuvNXZvPPAi - site:slimemoldtimemold.com/ "It's probably not Lithium" These searches didn't show up anything. I also searched the original post by NCM for comments, but didn't find anything.

bought Ṁ85 of NO

They're not letting my comment about my post ( https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oh3YWqobjHAjNvNqd/potato-diet-a-post-mortem-and-an-answer-to-smtm-s-article ) through on their website. I believe they might just be going to ignore those and just continue on their own (this is making me think differently about the abundance of positive comments they receive also)

@JoyVoid that has happened to me several times (trying to make a critical comment on their blog and never having it approved), and other people I know say they’ve experienced it too.

predicted NO

@NataliaMendonca Thanks for the info! To me this is really the most damning part of all this. If they intend to write back, I am confused why they wouldn't disclaim intending to do so and - more importantly - stop all their other posts until this is resolved If they'd just said 'oops, it's probably not lithium, let's review', I wouldn't feel so conflicted.

@JoyVoid Thank you for linking and writing the article. Tipped!

I think at this point if this market ends up resolving NO, I am going to update and just ignore the lithium hypothesis.

For me the biggest update was how they handled the potato diet. Might write an article on this

@JoyVoid Oh interesting. Would love to see the article, but what's the 2-sentence tl;dr? (From your comment I can't explicitly tell whether you're updating in favor or against the SMTM people)

@JoyVoid Please do!

@SneakySly @Austin Did not write the article yet, but here is a market about it https://manifold.markets/JoyVoid/a-week-after-i-publish-my-article-e . I intend to finish writing it today!

UPDATED!

predicted YES

I think this is likely the closest we'll get: https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2022/07/05/total-diet-studies-and-the-mystery-of-icp-ms/

@wasabipesto It does not seem that they have actually read my post yet, given that they say this: > these five papers disagree with basically every other measurement we’ve ever seen for lithium in food when my post mentions at least 11 other papers that agree with the five papers they are talking about.

predicted NO

Confirming that I will not consider that as a reply, e.g., that your post considers points other than total diet studies and isn't really addressed. PS: I got very confused by the upvote button; it couldn't be undone.