This question will resolve positively on the 1st of July, 2022
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1.3kṀ150kresolved Jul 3
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves positively on the 1st of July, 2022. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.
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Strange that non-determined markets, resolving after this one, have more extreme prices. Not sure what the arbitrage is tho
As some examples, the markets
- https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-11-on-january-1st-2023
- https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2022
- https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-manifold-markets-still-be-aliv
- https://manifold.markets/c/will-more-than-15000-people-be-kill
are at 97%, 4%, 97% and 98.2% respectively.
predictedYES 2y
@JonathanNankivell that would have worked before they implemented transactional taxes in MM (used to be an income tax).
The other issue might be liquidity. The probably doesn’t tell you what you will get for betting 100. I have seen some good bets before where the probability was good but any big bet would yield less than 1M profit.
@JonathanNankivell Fee schedule is described here: https://docs.manifold.markets/binary-markets
Currently fees are 13% x post-bet probability of the outcome you're betting against. So the fees are higher if you're betting "against the market", so to speak.
@JonathanNankivell I believe so, yes. It's less noticeable because when you're betting long shots (against the market) the number of shares you get is much higher than betting sure things (with the market), so the higher fees aren't as obvious.
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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