This question will resolve positively on the 1st of July, 2022

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Ṁ150kresolved Jul 3

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YES1D

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This market resolves positively on the 1st of July, 2022. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.

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@JoyVoid I was thinking about making a "This question will resolve positively on September 31" market and then resolving it NO on October 1st but I couldn't figure out how to word it without giving it away (there are 30 days in September).

Here's a derivate market on how this market resolves: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-nuno-resolve-their-question-ye

@JoyVoid I don't think so - I think the intent is very clear - to resolve this market yes on (or about) 7/1/22. The market is not phrased as a question about whether Nuno will resolve it properly, it's phrased as a statement of how it will resolve.

@jack Yes, sorry, that was indeed a joke refring to what you just said (which I tried to indicate through markdown strikethrough, but lack of formatting plus tonal indication means it was bound to get lost in all of it).

Strange that non-determined markets, resolving after this one, have more extreme prices. Not sure what the arbitrage is tho
As some examples, the markets
- https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-11-on-january-1st-2023
- https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2022
- https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-manifold-markets-still-be-aliv
- https://manifold.markets/c/will-more-than-15000-people-be-kill
are at 97%, 4%, 97% and 98.2% respectively.

@JonathanNankivell that would have worked before they implemented transactional taxes in MM (used to be an income tax).

@Undox Thanks for the thoughtful comments. I hadn't heard about the transaction taxes - where can I find out more?

@JonathanNankivell Fee schedule is described here: https://docs.manifold.markets/binary-markets
Currently fees are 13% x post-bet probability of the outcome you're betting against. So the fees are higher if you're betting "against the market", so to speak.

@MattP Just checking I understand that correctly...
If I bet M100 on YES to move the probability to 90%, I would pay 13% * 10% * M100 = M1.3 in fees?
And if I bet M100 on YES to move the probability to 10%, I would pay 13% * 90% * M100 = M11.7 in fees?

@JonathanNankivell I believe so, yes. It's less noticeable because when you're betting long shots (against the market) the number of shares you get is much higher than betting sure things (with the market), so the higher fees aren't as obvious.

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