Is [person] a [member of group]?
Resolved
YES
May 4
M\$25 bet
Private question, may not resolve.

# 💬 Proven correct

Nuño Sempere bought M\$19 of YES22 days ago

We start at a 5-10% based on prevalency rates in my social environment. I then update to 15-20% based on intuition. Then, [person] writes [thing], which doubles to triples my probability to 30-40%. Maybe that's double-counting, but [person] is also a [profession], which maybe moves me a bit more. ``` initp=0.05 to 0.1 update1=1 to 2 update2= 2 to 3 update3=1.2 to 1.5 mean(initp*update1*update2*update3) ## 0.35 = 35% ``` 35%'-ish is also roughly right, according to my intuition
Nuño Sempere made M\$75!

Nuño Sempere is betting YES at 43% 21 days ago

I have gotten new information about [person] being a [member of group]. It's most likely the case, so I'm resolving the question positively. It's also possible that [person] was a [member of group] in the past, but is no longer a [member of group] now.

Austin bought M\$1 of NO22 days ago

[person]? a [member of group]? no way!!!!!

Nuño Sempere bought M\$19 of YES22 days ago

We start at a 5-10% based on prevalency rates in my social environment. I then update to 15-20% based on intuition. Then, [person] writes [thing], which doubles to triples my probability to 30-40%. Maybe that's double-counting, but [person] is also a [profession], which maybe moves me a bit more. ``` initp=0.05 to 0.1 update1=1 to 2 update2= 2 to 3 update3=1.2 to 1.5 mean(initp*update1*update2*update3) ## 0.35 = 35% ``` 35%'-ish is also roughly right, according to my intuition