Private question, may not resolve.
💬 Proven correct
Nuño Sempere bought M$19 of YES22 days ago
We start at a 5-10% based on prevalency rates in my social environment. I then update to 15-20% based on intuition. Then, [person] writes [thing], which doubles to triples my probability to 30-40%. Maybe that's double-counting, but [person] is also a [profession], which maybe moves me a bit more.
```
initp=0.05 to 0.1
update1=1 to 2
update2= 2 to 3
update3=1.2 to 1.5
mean(initp*update1*update2*update3) ## 0.35 = 35%
```
35%'-ish is also roughly right, according to my intuition
Nuño Sempere made M$75!
Nuño Sempere is betting YES at 43% 21 days ago
I have gotten new information about [person] being a [member of group]. It's most likely the case, so I'm resolving the question positively. It's also possible that [person] was a [member of group] in the past, but is no longer a [member of group] now.
Austin bought M$1 of NO22 days ago
[person]? a [member of group]? no way!!!!!
Nuño Sempere bought M$19 of YES22 days ago
We start at a 5-10% based on prevalency rates in my social environment. I then update to 15-20% based on intuition. Then, [person] writes [thing], which doubles to triples my probability to 30-40%. Maybe that's double-counting, but [person] is also a [profession], which maybe moves me a bit more.
```
initp=0.05 to 0.1
update1=1 to 2
update2= 2 to 3
update3=1.2 to 1.5
mean(initp*update1*update2*update3) ## 0.35 = 35%
```
35%'-ish is also roughly right, according to my intuition