Notnilc's calibration
Grade: C-, Score: -7.94
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Notnilc bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
60%
80%
90%
- Resolves YES if any video posted in January on the Destiny channel has 390k or more views on Jan 31st.YESṀ10
- Resolves YES if any video posted in January on the Destiny channel has 390k or more views on Jan 31st.YESṀ10
- Will Destiny get fiber internet installed in his unit by the end of January?YESṀ10
95%
- Resolves YES if any video posted in January on the Destiny channel has 375k or more views on Jan 31st.YESṀ10
- Resolves YES if any video posted in January on the Destiny channel has 375k or more views on Jan 31st.YESṀ10
- Resolves YES if any video posted in January on the Destiny channel has 375k or more views on Jan 31st.YESṀ10
97%
- Resolves YES if any video posted in January on the Destiny channel has 375k or more views on Jan 31st.YESṀ10
- Resolves YES if any video posted in January on the Destiny channel has 375k or more views on Jan 31st.YESṀ10
- Resolves YES if any video posted in January on the Destiny channel has 375k or more views on Jan 31st.YESṀ10