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https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/05/politics/us-intelligence-ukraine-dugina-assassination/index.html
The US intelligence community believes that the car bombing that killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of prominent Russian political figure Alexander Dugin, was authorized by elements within the Ukrainian government, sources briefed on the intelligence told CNN.
Dugin is irrelevant inside Russia, and is hyped up in Western sources.
Incompetence points more to Ukraine (the US has no trouble knocking out pipelines, or overthrowing and installing the puppet regime in Ukraine; whatever you think of their ends, they still have the means to not pick a stupid target and somehow miss)
@Gigacasting I agree that Dugin is factually irrelevant but hyped in the west, but that's part of why I think targeting him would be a weird choice on Ukraine's part, since they're closer to the facts on the ground and are more likely to have a correct read on the situation - a lot of the US' strategists on Russia in the state dept aren't local experts, don't speak the language, and get all their news thirdhand.
I think the fact they targeted Dugin is most likely to exclude Ukraine - they'd've gone for a general or someone in Putin's patronage network. The fact that they fucked up (or appear to have done so) doesn't really make a determination between Russia and the US, since it could be deliberate or not. But I think that Russia's subsequent behavior - condemning the attack, but not pressing forward with any notable new action in the wake of it - makes them less likely, since they wouldn't go to the trouble of false flagging it unless they wanted to achieve something out of it.
And, truthfully, most intelligence agencies are a lot less spooky than the media makes them out to be. The CIA has had all kinds of harebrained schemes that failed to pan out over the years - one more screwup on the list isn't particularly remarkable.
I was speculating on this with some friends shortly after the news broke. It seems improbable that Ukrainian intelligence (or whatever of their organs of state) would be able to successfully infiltrate Russia and then waste that shot on Dugin (and miss!). He's a loud ethnonationalist, but he's not particularly important in the grand scheme of things, not politically and certainly not strategically.
I guess I can see the Russian false flag argument (particularly since it would make the "miss" that hits Dugin's daughter probably intentional) but I'd've expected their reaction to be different afterwards if that was the case. They haven't really used it as a pretext for any notable escalation.
Given those gripes . . . I feel a bit conspiracy theorist settling on it, but given how some of the state department seems weirdly obsessed with Dugin being the secret mastermind of all Putin's foreign policy (for reference, this is approximately like believing Steve Bannon is the mastermind of ours) it kinda seems like the CIA (or whatever of our organs of state) makes it up the list as a probable culprit, and their failure to actually hit him seems in keeping with their finest traditions.