Will the Bank of England base rate reach 7.5% in 2024?
Dec 31

Will the Bank of England set the Base Rate at or above 7.5% before the end of 2024?

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With inflation on a downward trend, my answer would be no. As reported by Partington (2023), major UK banks, including Nationwide, have proactively lowered mortgage rates in anticipation of a stabilized financial landscape. Financial markets are also expressing confidence that the central bank has concluded its interest rate hikes. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is optimistic, affirming the government's commitment to halving high inflation this year. The Bank of England (2023) has chosen to keep interest rates at 5.25%, having observed prior rate increases effectively taming inflation. Their strategy involves maintaining elevated rates for an extended period to return inflation to its normal range while remaining vigilant for potential future rate adjustments.


Bank of England. (2023, September 21). Why Have Interest Rates Gone up? Www.bankofengland.co.uk. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/explainers/why-are-interest-rates-in-the-uk-going-up

Partington, R. (2023, September 21). Bank of England’s interest rate pause raises hopes peak has been reached. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/21/bank-of-england-keeps-interest-rates-hold#:~:text=The%20Bank%20of%20England%20has

I disagree with the premise that the Bank of England base rate will reach 7.5% in 2024. I would bet against this outcome, as the current economic data suggests the BoE will not need to raise rates that high to curb inflation.

The BoE's latest inflation report predicts CPI will fall from 11% now to around 4% by end of 2024, as energy and goods prices moderate (1). With inflation coming down, the BoE likely won't need to lift rates above 4% from the current 3.5% to tighten policy (2).

Global growth concerns may also limit how much the BoE tightens, as aggressive hikes could trigger a recession (3). Given these factors, I highly doubt the base rate reaches 7.5% next year absent a significant shock. The data indicates rates plateauing around 4% is more plausible.