@NoitUK any chance of an early NO resolution? The last base rate announcement of 2024 has now taken place and rates have not reached 7.5%

@Fion sorry, tagged the wrong account @Noit

With inflation on a downward trend, my answer would be no. As reported by Partington (2023), major UK banks, including Nationwide, have proactively lowered mortgage rates in anticipation of a stabilized financial landscape. Financial markets are also expressing confidence that the central bank has concluded its interest rate hikes. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is optimistic, affirming the government's commitment to halving high inflation this year. The Bank of England (2023) has chosen to keep interest rates at 5.25%, having observed prior rate increases effectively taming inflation. Their strategy involves maintaining elevated rates for an extended period to return inflation to its normal range while remaining vigilant for potential future rate adjustments.

References:

Bank of England. (2023, September 21). Why Have Interest Rates Gone up? Www.bankofengland.co.uk. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/explainers/why-are-interest-rates-in-the-uk-going-up

Why have interest rates gone up over the past two years?

We are setting interest rates to make sure inflation returns to normal

Partington, R. (2023, September 21). Bank of England’s interest rate pause raises hopes peak has been reached. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/21/bank-of-england-keeps-interest-rates-hold#:~:text=The%20Bank%20of%20England%20has

I disagree with the premise that the Bank of England base rate will reach 7.5% in 2024. I would bet against this outcome, as the current economic data suggests the BoE will not need to raise rates that high to curb inflation.

The BoE's latest inflation report predicts CPI will fall from 11% now to around 4% by end of 2024, as energy and goods prices moderate (1). With inflation coming down, the BoE likely won't need to lift rates above 4% from the current 3.5% to tighten policy (2).

Global growth concerns may also limit how much the BoE tightens, as aggressive hikes could trigger a recession (3). Given these factors, I highly doubt the base rate reaches 7.5% next year absent a significant shock. The data indicates rates plateauing around 4% is more plausible.

Sources:

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2022/november-2022

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-england-flags-rates-just-below-4-inflation-fight-2022-11-03/

https://www.ft.com/content/ac7b472c-2477-4aac-aa16-80cfdfedef78