I'm playing Pokémon Ruby on a Game Boy Advance, original hardware, no mods or overclocks or anything beyond a screen mod and a new shell. I've saved in front of Groudon and am soft resetting to shiny hunt.

The odds of a shiny are 1 in 8192. I can turn around two reloads in a minute. I make that around 1.5% chance per hour of play of me encountering old mate.

I'm not playing 24:7 like a nerd, my primary playing is while rocking a baby to sleep, watching TV or on the loo.

Note that this market is a successor to https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-i-catch-a-shiny-groudon-in-the-2c57e78d897f?r=Tm9pdA and the rounds that came before. Rather than continue to create markets and suffer weird incentives like not playing before my market has some participants, I'm making this one where I can just add more dates on as past deadlines fall. Every time a fortnightly goal date falls I will add another one and extend closure.

If Round 4 resolves YES this market will resolve N/A. All times are UK local.

Will I catch a shiny Groudon in the next two weeks? ROUND 4

41% chance. I'm playing Pokémon Ruby on a Game Boy Advance, original hardware, no mods or overclocks or anything beyond a screen mod and a new shell. I've saved in front of Groudon and am soft resetting to shiny hunt. The odds of a shiny are 1 in 8192. I can turn around two reloads in a minute. I make that around 1.5% chance per hour of play of me encountering old mate. I'm not playing 24:7 like a nerd, my primary playing is while rocking a baby to sleep, watching TV or on the loo. This has been dragging on for two months now and any just RNGesus would give me my shiny Gordon any moment now so obviously it's completely sane to bet YES.