53% chance. I'm playing Pokémon Ruby on a Game Boy Advance, original hardware, no mods or overclocks or anything beyond a screen mod and a new shell. I've saved in front of Groudon and am soft resetting to shiny hunt. The odds of a shiny are 1 in 8192. I can turn around two reloads in a minute. I make that around 1.5% chance per hour of play of me encountering old mate. I'm not playing 24:7 like a nerd, my primary playing is while rocking a baby to sleep, watching TV or on the loo. This has been dragging on for two months now and any just RNGesus would give me my shiny Gordon any moment now so obviously it's completely sane to bet YES.