Will I catch a shiny Groudon in the next two weeks? Round 3

176

Ṁ4K

Ṁ390

resolved Aug 22

Resolved

ALL

I'm playing Pokémon Ruby on a Game Boy Advance, original hardware, no mods or overclocks or anything beyond a screen mod and a new shell. I've saved in front of Groudon and am soft resetting to shiny hunt.

The odds of a shiny are 1 in 8192. I can turn around two reloads in a minute. I make that around 1.5% chance per hour of play of me encountering old mate.

I'm not playing 24:7 like a nerd, my primary playing is while rocking a baby to sleep, watching TV or on the loo.

I've been at this for a full month now with no luck, so it must appear any day now, right?

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ140
2		Ṁ132
3		Ṁ32
4		Ṁ28
5		Ṁ25

5 Comments

20 Holders

77 Trades

Sort by:

bought Ṁ124 of NO

Still no Groudon. The hunt continues. I just want it to be over. https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-i-catch-a-shiny-groudon-in-the-2c57e78d897f?r=Tm9pdA

Will I catch a shiny Groudon in the next two weeks? ROUND 4

53% chance. I'm playing Pokémon Ruby on a Game Boy Advance, original hardware, no mods or overclocks or anything beyond a screen mod and a new shell. I've saved in front of Groudon and am soft resetting to shiny hunt. The odds of a shiny are 1 in 8192. I can turn around two reloads in a minute. I make that around 1.5% chance per hour of play of me encountering old mate. I'm not playing 24:7 like a nerd, my primary playing is while rocking a baby to sleep, watching TV or on the loo. This has been dragging on for two months now and any just RNGesus would give me my shiny Gordon any moment now so obviously it's completely sane to bet YES.

predicted YES

Updated close time as the midnight course on the last two made me stay up trying until midnight when I really should have slept. Still no Gordon.

predicted YES

Midpoint update: still no Gordon 🥲🥲🥲

Any estimate as to the average number of hours you’ve been playing each day?

predicted YES

@june It’s been a bit all over the place. Between one and two hours a day on weekdays. Weekend days are either no hours or 4+ hours depending on life.