A full world government will develop before human-level AGI
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Will we get AGI before 2030?
56% chance
A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all
24% chance
Conditional on AGI taking over the world, what will it do to the humans?
Will a humanoid AGI be used in a public setting by the end of 2025?
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Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
40% chance
Will we get AGI before 2041?
82% chance
Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)
78% chance
Will we get AGI before WW3?
74% chance
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?
58% chance
Will a misaligned AGI take over the world?
11% chance
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Will we get AGI before 2030?
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Will we get AGI before 2041?
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