If the Supreme Court makes a determination either way this will resolve appropriately.

If the ATF takes significant action against sellers this will resolve YES

If a bill is passed this will resolve appropriately

If it is still easy to "legally" buy FRTs by the close date this will resolve NO

I reserve the right to update this criteria if necessary

AI slop:

Current Status: After the July 2024 NAGR v. Garland ruling and May 2025 Justice Department settlement, the ATF no longer classifies FRTs as machine guns, and federal enforcement has ceased with seized devices being returned to owners. Federal courts ruled that FRTs, which require the trigger to reset and be pulled after each shot, are not machine guns, unlike weapons that fire multiple rounds with a single pull.

Resolution will be determined by the current federal legal classification of FRTs under the National Firearms Act and Gun Control Act. If the ATF's classification changes or if the Fifth Circuit or Supreme Court reverses the July 2024 ruling, the market will resolve accordingly based on the new authoritative federal determination.

Background

In March 2022, the ATF released an open letter stating that some forced reset triggers should be regulated as machine guns, following a July 2021 cease-and-desist letter sent to manufacturer Rare Breed Triggers. In July 2024, district judge Reed O'Connor vacated the ATF's determination that some forced reset triggers are machineguns, finding that the determination was "arbitrary and capricious." In May 2025, the Trump administration reached a settlement with Rare Breed Triggers, permitting the sale of these devices under specific conditions.

Considerations

Several states independently prohibit FRT possession regardless of federal law—California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, New Jersey, and others maintain bans classifying FRTs as prohibited trigger activators. The ATF appealed the lower court's ruling to the Fifth Circuit, and while oral arguments have taken place, no formal decision has been made. Given the circuit split, it is increasingly likely the issue will reach the Supreme Court.