By How Much Does Modafinil Improve Meditative Absorption in a Self-Blinded RCT?
Basic
11
668
2025
18%
Cohen's d of d<0
31%
Cohen's d of 0<d<0.2
29%
Cohen's d of 0.2<d<0.6
20%
Cohen's d 0.6<d<1.0
3%
Cohen's d 1.0<d

This is a market in a series on markets for possible quantified self experiments I might run.

Context here, in short: I will put up >10 of these markets, run the "best" one (my own judgment, but probably just the one with the highest expected Cohen's d), and a random one (resolving them to the outcome), and will resolve all the others as N/A. In all experiments, I will be using the statistical method detailed here, code for it here.

40 samples, with blocking after waking up, 20 intervention with 100mg modafinil and 20 placebo (sugar pills). Expected duration of trial: Also ~4½ months with two samples per week, as to prevent becoming dependent on modafinil.

In general, by meditative absorption I mean the concentration/tranquility (in Buddhist terms samatha) during a ≥30 minute meditation session in the morning, ~45 minutes after waking up and taking the substance (less if the substance starts working immediately). I will be doing at least 15 minutes of anapanasati during that meditation session, but might start (or end) with another practice).

Past meditation data can be found here.

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