Will the snow melt before 1 december?
95%
chance

Image from my security camera.

The red area will be the deciding factor here but there is a pretty even layer of snow right now, 135 mm (5 in) thick, on top of the grass.

If there is grass visible (according to my fairest judgment) in a clear majority (let's say ~70%) of this red area by midnight between 30/11 and 1/12 this market resolves to YES. If it's about 50/50 or less it resolves to NO.

Current weather forecast below (I will add updated forecasts in comments every day or every couple of days):

Temperatures are obviously in °C and daily high/low.

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NiklasWiklander avatar
Niklas Wiklander
bought Ṁ30 of YES

It's not pretty out there today. I've tried to draw just about the same area as in the market description and my judgment at this point is that we're at about 50% grass at this time. If no miracle happens this will be a yes.
Note that I'm making small bets so as not to completely turn this into a cash-grab for myself. I want to gain/keep a good reputation.

JoshuaB avatar
Joshua
sold Ṁ129 of NO

@NiklasWiklander While I do appreciate you giving me an opportunity to exit the market a wee bit, I believe it's perfectly socially acceptable to indeed turn it into a cash grab for yourself. Thanks!

NiklasWiklander avatar
Niklas Wiklander
is predicting NO at 11%

It's starting to look bad for the snow! This is from today. There was some light rain earlier. Still only about 1°C though. I'm losing faith.

NiklasWiklander avatar
Niklas Wiklander
is predicting NO at 12%

Photo from this morning. As you can see there has been significant meltage on the gravel, but still plenty of snow left on the grass. However there will be some risk for a tiny bit of rain/snow the coming few days. No warmer than 1°C though.

NiklasWiklander avatar
Niklas Wiklander
is predicting NO at 20%

Updated forecast:


No photo today but it looks the same, just a bit more melted.

NiklasWiklander avatar
Niklas Wiklander
is predicting NO at 35%

Current forecast:


Todays photo:

ManifoldDream avatar

Will the snow melt before 1 december?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition