Image from my security camera.
The red area will be the deciding factor here but there is a pretty even layer of snow right now, 135 mm (5 in) thick, on top of the grass.
If there is grass visible (according to my fairest judgment) in a clear majority (let's say ~70%) of this red area by midnight between 30/11 and 1/12 this market resolves to YES. If it's about 50/50 or less it resolves to NO.
Current weather forecast below (I will add updated forecasts in comments every day or every couple of days):
Temperatures are obviously in °C and daily high/low.
It's not pretty out there today. I've tried to draw just about the same area as in the market description and my judgment at this point is that we're at about 50% grass at this time. If no miracle happens this will be a yes.
Note that I'm making small bets so as not to completely turn this into a cash-grab for myself. I want to gain/keep a good reputation.
It's starting to look bad for the snow! This is from today. There was some light rain earlier. Still only about 1°C though. I'm losing faith.
Photo from this morning. As you can see there has been significant meltage on the gravel, but still plenty of snow left on the grass. However there will be some risk for a tiny bit of rain/snow the coming few days. No warmer than 1°C though.
No photo today but it looks the same, just a bit more melted.