Nikita Skovoroda's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.79
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Nikita Skovoroda bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
- @IsaacKing and @DesTiny together manipulated @DesTiny's personal goal market to earn Ṁ16,000 profit. Will manifold users find that ethnical?NOṀ20
- Will this market stay at or above 90% for at least one contiguous hour before close?NOṀ10
- Will this market stay at or above 90% for at least one contiguous hour before close?NOṀ10
5%
- Will I post at least 50 questions on Manifold in the next 3 months?YESṀ60
- @IsaacKing and @DesTiny together manipulated @DesTiny's personal goal market to earn Ṁ16,000 profit. Will manifold users find that ethnical?NOṀ21
- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ20
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?YESṀ500
- Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2024?NOṀ200
- Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2024?NOṀ150
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%