The paper is "A Chloroplast Protein Atlas Reveals Novel Structures and Spatial Organization of Biosynthetic Pathways", I'm one of the authors, here's the preprint: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.05.31.493820v1, we submitted it to Cell and it got sent out for review.
I'm testing Manifold's ability to predict scientific publishing results, although I don't know that we'll get enough people with opinions to get sensible predictions on this sort of thing.
Will resolve this whenever the final decision gets made, which usually takes a few months, but might be longer if they ask for additional experiments etc.
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Apologies for how long this took! We basically had a positive decision in the summer but there was a long revision process and I didn't want to resolve it since it wasn't a 100% sure thing until it was all finished. Here it is now: https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(23)00676-1
@IsaacKing iirc the current state is that it got basically accepted in the summer but we're still finishing up the revisions, and in the meantime I'm on a different project and not following what's going on closely. I think it makes the most sense to resolve once it's actually published - apologies for setting an unrealistic timeline and forgetting how long and messy the scientific publishing process is. (Sigh...)
Thank you all for the comments! @Research.Bet Research.bet sounds great - I haven't figured out how to make a market show up there, but I'd be happy to have it featured, and I'll make sure to check back to see how the overall project goes.
@WeronikaPatena We've gone ahead and featured it! We're currently adding them manually from the #science tagged section.
On one hand this paper seems really cool and I see you have several previous papers accepted to Cell/Nature, so that inclines me to bump up the probability. On the other hand, the base rate is supposedly 11% so even if I assume you're 2x more likely than normal, that still implies this is overvalued.
I know nothing about you, nor your paper, nor what base rates look like in scientific publishing - but given that you're the kind of person to post on a prediction market to ask this question in the first place, I'm going to upvote YES on the theory that such behavior is correlated with general good reasoning abilities haha~
Good luck!
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