Resolves yes if at there is an event such that:
-At least 3 of the following media outlets refer to it as an "October surprise":
-New York Times
-Washington Post
-CNN
-NBC
-FOX News
-ABC
-The Wall Street Journal
-Politico
-And, the event, in my opinion, can mainly be described as one of the following "unsurprising" events:
-Trump says/is revealed to have said something offensive, dishonest, illegal, or selfish. (Excluding direct acts of violence)
-Trump gets involved in legal trouble, or there is a development in one of Trump's legal cases. (Excluding Trump going to jail)
-Joe Biden is revealed to have some age-related illness.
-Anyone is revealed to have covid.
-There is a development in Hunter Biden's legal case. (Excluding Joe Biden pardoning Hunter)
-Something weird involving RFK Jr.
This resolves no if the above does not happen before election day. I may add things to the list of unsurprising events during the first week this market is open, and will take suggestions for events to add. I will not bet on this market.
I believe this resolves YES:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/04/jack-smith-trump-jan-6-filing/
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/jack-smiths-october-surprise-court-legal-politics-election-50c5f620
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/10/03/the-first-october-surprise-of-2024-00182319
@TheAllMemeingEye it's not on the list, so no. tbh I haven't really been paying attention to that, so I didn't think about it.