Resolves yes if at there is an event such that:

-At least 3 of the following media outlets refer to it as an "October surprise":

-New York Times

-Washington Post

-CNN

-NBC

-FOX News

-ABC

-The Wall Street Journal

-Politico

-And, the event, in my opinion, can mainly be described as one of the following "unsurprising" events:

-Trump says/is revealed to have said something offensive, dishonest, illegal, or selfish. (Excluding direct acts of violence)

-Trump gets involved in legal trouble, or there is a development in one of Trump's legal cases. (Excluding Trump going to jail)

-Joe Biden is revealed to have some age-related illness.

-Anyone is revealed to have covid.

-There is a development in Hunter Biden's legal case. (Excluding Joe Biden pardoning Hunter)

-Something weird involving RFK Jr.

This resolves no if the above does not happen before election day. I may add things to the list of unsurprising events during the first week this market is open, and will take suggestions for events to add. I will not bet on this market.