Resolves yes if at there is an event such that:
-At least 3 of the following media outlets refer to it as an "October surprise":
-New York Times
-Washington Post
-CNN
-NBC
-FOX News
-ABC
-The Wall Street Journal
-Politico
-And, the event, in my opinion, can mainly be described as one of the following "unsurprising" events:
-Trump says/is revealed to have said something offensive, dishonest, illegal, or selfish. (Excluding direct acts of violence)
-Trump gets involved in legal trouble, or there is a development in one of Trump's legal cases. (Excluding Trump going to jail)
-Joe Biden is revealed to have some age-related illness.
-Anyone is revealed to have covid.
-There is a development in Hunter Biden's legal case. (Excluding Joe Biden pardoning Hunter)
-Something weird involving RFK Jr.
This resolves no if the above does not happen before election day. I may add things to the list of unsurprising events during the first week this market is open, and will take suggestions for events to add. I will not bet on this market.