Will Taylor Swift ever win a Nobel Prize?
Will Taylor Swift ever win a Nobel Prize?
37
635Ṁ27112101
9%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Taylor Swift, the famous pop singer.
Any Nobel Prize:
Current prizes include: physics | chemistry | physiology or medicine | literature | peace | economic sciences
Should new prizes be created, they will count toward resolution.
Under her name, not as part of a group.
She doesn't have to accept the prize.
Resolves YES as soon as the prize is announced.
Resolves NO either on the day of her death if she has not won a prize by then or if and when Nobel Prizes permanently cease being awarded.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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