This resolves to YES if Rafael Nadal announces, before January 1, 2024, his retirement from professional tennis through an official channel such as a press conference, an interview, or an official social media account. The resolution depends on the date of the announcement not the date of the last game played.
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@NicoDelon He could and he has (probably), as you previously mentioned. But none of these have been “official announcements” and I highly doubt he will officially announce his retirement more that 2 months in advance, even less 5 months in advance
Rephrase question?
Announce his retirement from professional tennis
Instead of announce his professional retirement
@NicoDelon The criteria state it being official, when he does make it official I expect it to be all over Twitter and his Instagram of course (not a requirement but highly likely).
I've definitely read/heard him say 2024 will be his last season, but my guess is he will at least want to play RG one last time, and I don't think it's very likely he will officially announce his retirement 6 months in advance (legends should go out with some hype 😆).
78% seemed too high for me, but 30-50% seems more reasonable to me.
If I'm not mistaken, Federer played his last match at the Laver Cup on Friday, September 23, 2022. And Federer announced his retirement from the ATP Tour and grand slams on September 15, 2022. I think Nadal might go out like this as well.
@NicoDelon is there a reason you think otherwise?
I might be missing something because you also have stakes on higher % in this market
Lost confidence in Rafa after his performance the past couple months. I think he calls it after Roland Garros
