This resolves to YES if Rafael Nadal announces, before January 1, 2024, his retirement from professional tennis through an official channel such as a press conference, an interview, or an official social media account. The resolution depends on the date of the announcement not the date of the last game played.
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@d Yeah. Though he could still clearly say Paris will be when he retires, which would count as an announcement
@NicoDelon He could and he has (probably), as you previously mentioned. But none of these have been “official announcements” and I highly doubt he will officially announce his retirement more that 2 months in advance, even less 5 months in advance
@d Agree there hasn’t been an official announcement and there may not be before the end of the year. I stand to lose mana but that’s how it is.
Rephrase question?
Announce his retirement from professional tennis
Instead of announce his professional retirement
So, he’s already said 2024 will probably be his last year. To me that’s not quite official and definitive enough, but I’d be surprised if he didn’t make any announcement to confirm this by the end of the year. @d ?
@NicoDelon The criteria state it being official, when he does make it official I expect it to be all over Twitter and his Instagram of course (not a requirement but highly likely).
I've definitely read/heard him say 2024 will be his last season, but my guess is he will at least want to play RG one last time, and I don't think it's very likely he will officially announce his retirement 6 months in advance (legends should go out with some hype 😆).
78% seemed too high for me, but 30-50% seems more reasonable to me.
If I'm not mistaken, Federer played his last match at the Laver Cup on Friday, September 23, 2022. And Federer announced his retirement from the ATP Tour and grand slams on September 15, 2022. I think Nadal might go out like this as well.
@NicoDelon is there a reason you think otherwise?
I might be missing something because you also have stakes on higher % in this market
@d No that’s plausible. I honestly thought he would have made the announcement earlier.