Yes, it's about that ending. If you haven't watched the show, but you would like to watch it someday (which you should), stop reading now.
Important note: This market will resolve to a poll. The displayed probability of the market should approximate the percentage of poll-answering users who vote YES out of three options (see below).
"Made in America," the finale of the TV show The Sopranos, leaves the viewer wondering whether the lead character, Tony Soprano, dies (virtually) after the last scene cuts. Does the scene cut right before he gets killed by someone—that guy in the bathroom, someone entering the restaurant? Does he die of a heart attack? Does nothing significant happen after Meadow enters the restaurant? "What are you talking about? The show just ends!"
Quoting Wikipedia,
The plot involves Tony Soprano attempting to end the war with rival Mafioso Phil Leotardo, and muses on its drastic consequences to those around him. Tony also seeks to secure his family's futures, and tie up loose ends with his associates and enemies.
"Made in America" is considered one of the greatest series finales of all time. Its final scene received acclaim and has drawn various critical analyses, interpretations, and fan theories; Chase has made varied comments about the finale, although has not explicitly given an explanation, opinion, or statement regarding the series' ending.
I need not say more. If you've watched the show, you know what I'm talking about. If you haven't, you should have stopped reading when I told you so.
I'm not interested in whether Tony, had the show continued, would have died sometime after the end of that particular episode's storyline. I'm interested in the immediate aftermath of the ending, the moment the scene cuts—does Tony get to leave the restaurant alive that night? Of course, this is not a question to be answered by determining what the actual world is like or asking Chase what he intended. So we'll use Manifold's tried and tested method to settle the most difficult questions: a poll.
At market close, I'll share a link to a poll—a Manifold poll if such is still available or a suitable alternative—and resolve according to the results (PROB) when the poll has received enough answers (at least 50, up to 100). The poll will offer three options:
Yes (Tony dies/is killed when or shortly after the scene cuts)
No (Tony does not die/is not killed when or shortly after the scene cuts)
There is no fact of the matter
The % number used for resolution (PROB) will be the nearest integer corresponding to 100 x YES / (YES + NO + There is no fact of the matter).
Argue all you want in the comments. After this market resolves, no other interpretation of the ending will be authorized. This will forever settle the question.
My Sopranos markets:
1,000
3.00@traders The poll has 34 responses. I boosted it several times. I wanted to get at least 50 responses but this seems unlikely now. If I don't hear any objections I will resolve this market by tomorrow.
@JimAusman It should be at 100%. There's a reason David Chase calls it the "death scene."
Alan Sepinwall [co-author]: When you said there was an end point, you don’t mean Tony at Holsten’s, you just meant, “I think I have two more years’ worth of stories left in me.”
Chase: Yes, I think I had that death scene around two years before the end… Tony was going to get called to a meeting with Johnny Sack in Manhattan, and he was going to go back through the Lincoln Tunnel for this meeting, and it was going to go black there and you never saw him again as he was heading back, the theory being that something bad happens to him at the meeting. But we didn’t do that.
Matt Zoller Seitz [co-author]: You realise, of course, that you just referred to that as a death scene.
[A long pause follows]
Chase: F*** you guys.
@MickBransfield Like I said, I don’t believe he meant that the scene in question is a death scene, let alone a scene where Tony dies.
@NicoDelon That doesn't make sense because he cursed when they called him out. There's no logical reason for Chase to do so unless he slipped up.
@NicoDelon More seriously though, if you’re that confident you’re leaving money on the table. It resolves to a poll so if it’s that obvious people should agree with you and you should be safe.