Will Russia have control over Bakhmut at any point until end of March 2023?
resolved Apr 1

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bought αΉ€10 of NO

In Bakhmut, the question looms,
Will Russia's power continue to boom?
Their grasp may tighten, their grip may hold,
But come March 2023, their control may fold.

predicted YES

As per the war map, the city seems to be surrounded and partially controlled by Russia:


Made a market with resolution criteria based on control of a single point (train station) instead of control of the whole city which tends to pose more resolution difficulties:

predicted YES

How exactly do you propose to resolve this?

predicted NO

@njmkw If I have enough confirmation by credible sources that the entitety of Bakhmut is Controller by Russian forces it's a yes.

predicted YES

@PS The Russians are closing in on the supply routes to Bakhmut. It's getting hard for me to believe that Ukraine can hold for two more months if supply gets threatened, sadly.

predicted NO

@NickelChen In general, I agree - the most likely scenario seems to be that Ukraine will hold the town for some more time to grind down Russian forces and then withdraw before the situation gets too dire. It's just that I think the chance of holding on is more than 10%. FWIW, Michael Kofman, who has been a sensible voice on the Russian military since before the invasion, said a week ago that he sees Ukraine's chances of holding on to Bakhmut as 50/50.