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In Bakhmut, the question looms,
Will Russia's power continue to boom?
Their grasp may tighten, their grip may hold,
But come March 2023, their control may fold.

As per the war map, the city seems to be surrounded and partially controlled by Russia:

https://liveuamap.com/ru

Made a market with resolution criteria based on control of a single point (train station) instead of control of the whole city which tends to pose more resolution difficulties:

How exactly do you propose to resolve this?

@njmkw If I have enough confirmation by credible sources that the entitety of Bakhmut is Controller by Russian forces it's a yes.

ISW does not forecast the imminent fall of Bakhmut to Russian forces, although the Ukrainian command may choose to withdraw rather than risk unacceptable losses - a detailed assessment of the current situation by the ISW.

@PS The Russians are closing in on the supply routes to Bakhmut. It's getting hard for me to believe that Ukraine can hold for two more months if supply gets threatened, sadly.

@NickelChen In general, I agree - the most likely scenario seems to be that Ukraine will hold the town for some more time to grind down Russian forces and then withdraw before the situation gets too dire. It's just that I think the chance of holding on is more than 10%. FWIW, Michael Kofman, who has been a sensible voice on the Russian military since before the invasion, said a week ago that he sees Ukraine's chances of holding on to Bakhmut as 50/50.

@NickelChen Just to update on that:

“I think the battle will continue for about one or two months unless there is a major encirclement or something unexpected happens – it will go street by street; the artillery will slowly destroy all the tall buildings & it will descend to urban warfare. It will crawl to an end.”