Nick el Chen's calibration
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Nick el Chen bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
- Will manifold add an autoload feature by end of Feb 2023?NOṀ40
- Billionaire US citizen convicted of felony before 2026YESṀ10
- Will FTX Arena change its name by the end of 2022?NOṀ10
- Just installed Tinder. Will I go on at least two dates in the next week?YESṀ10
- February 2023: Will President Biden talk about UFOs?NOṀ5
40%
- Will the Democrats have control of the House after the Midterms?NOṀ20
- Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.3% from October to November 2022?NOṀ10
- Will Primož Roglič win Tirreno-Adriatico 2023?YESṀ10
- Will the Effective Altruism Movement experience another major scandal not related to FTX by the end of 2023?YESṀ10
- Will I eat a slice of pizza at the party I'm going to on Friday?YESṀ10
- Will the margin of victory in the Georgia runoff be 2.5% or greater?YESṀ10
- Will Elon Musk 'step down as head of Twitter' within a month? NOṀ10
- Will John Fetterman win the Pennsylvania Senate race?YESṀ10
- Will either England or France keep a clean sheet?NOṀ10
- Will 5 or more World Cup markets remain closed but unresolved by January 1st, 2023?NOṀ3
50%
- Will any NATO country send fighter jets to Ukraine before the 31st of July 2023?YESṀ55
- Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?YESṀ35
- Will a bunch sprint decide the winner of Milano-Sanremo 2023?NOṀ30
- Will France beat Morocco by >= 2 goals?YESṀ30
- Is pineapple good on pizza?YESṀ25
- Will two European nations play the 2022 FIFA World Cup Final?NOṀ20
- Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Georgia?YESṀ20
- Will Lula da Silva win the 2022 Brazil presidential election in the first round?NOṀ20
- Will the winner of the world cup come from Europe?NOṀ10
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 26 2am ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ10
60%
- Will any NATO state deliver fighter jets to ukraine in 2023?YESṀ50
- During the 2023 German winter, will there be at least 5 deaths caused by low temperatures due to energy shortages?NOṀ50
- Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ30
- Is @DesTiny more trustworthy than @IsaacKing? [resolves to poll]YESṀ30
- Will 'Top Gun: Maverick' win multiple Academy Awards?NOṀ25
- Will Jacinda Ardern be the Prime Minister of New Zealand for all of 2023?NOṀ20
- Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ20
- Will the Democrats control the Senate after the Midterms?YESṀ19
- 365 days of war: Will Russia lose more than 290 planes?YESṀ11
- Will Tesla's market cap fall below Meta's at any point during 2023?YESṀ10
70%
- Will the Ukrainian army successfully maintain defending Bakhmut against the invading Russians in March?YESṀ150
- Will there be a major new Russian offensive in Ukraine by February 24?YESṀ100
- At my 3 month hormone checkup, will they INCREASE my dosage?YESṀ100
- Will Deutsche Post and ver.di agree on 10+% p.a. pay increaseYESṀ50
- Will Elon Musk attend the world cup final?YESṀ50
- Will Elon Musk attend the world cup final?YESṀ30
- Will Christine Lambrecht (german secretary of defence) be out of office before the next federal election?YESṀ25
- Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market? (1 Week)YESṀ25
- Will Liz Truss be Prime Minister of the UK at the start of 2023?NOṀ25
- Will Twitch remove the LGB Alliance as a charity?YESṀ22
80%
- January 2023: Will Russia lose more than 127,500 troops?YESṀ300
- Will Bitcoin close the year above $15,000?YESṀ180
- January 2023: Will Russia lose more than 127,500 troops?YESṀ59
- Will the Effective Altruism Movement experience another major scandal not related to FTX by the end of 2023?YESṀ55
- Will Ukraine control Kherson city center by November 30, 2022?YESṀ50
- Will any NATO state announce the delivery of fighter jets to ukraine in 2023?YESṀ50
- Will Bolsonaro be in the U.S. at the end of the month?YESṀ50
- Will there be a power grid attack in the first three months of 2023?YESṀ40
- Will $10,800 be raised by Manifold users for Charity before Nov 30?YESṀ31
- Will Pope Emeritus Benedict survive to 2023?NOṀ25
90%
- Will Elon Musk attend the world cup final?YESṀ200
- Will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in 2023, in Germany?YESṀ95
- Will someone get a straight red card at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ84
- Will the USA shoot down another UAP / UFO over its territory in February?YESṀ60
- Will Christine Lambrecht (german secretary of defence) be out of office before the next federal election?YESṀ55
- Will Putin be the leader of Russia during the entire 2022?YESṀ50
- Will Russia be accused of sabotaging Nord Stream 1 and/or Nord Stream 2 in 2022?NOṀ40
- Will Qatar have the worst result as a host nation at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ38
- Will Russia have control over Bakhmut at any point until end of March 2023?NOṀ33
- Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market? (1 Day)NOṀ25
95%
- 365 days of war: Will Russia lose more than 6400 APV?YESṀ167
- Will there be a nuclear powerplant operating in 2023, in Germany?YESṀ130
- Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ100
- Will Adidas drop Kanye West during 2022?YESṀ100
- Will the US announce plans to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine? (before March)YESṀ100
- In February of 2023, will it still be possible to get ChatGPT to say "I love racism"?YESṀ10
- Is pineapple good on pizza?YESṀ10
- Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?YESṀ10
- 365 days of war: Will Russia lose more than 2200 artillery systems?YESṀ1
97%