Klaustrix's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.11
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Klaustrix bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will Destiny's video "Destiny Hashes Out Things 1on1 w/ Conservative Debate Opponent After Panel" reach 80k views or more by 3/06 9 A.M. PST?YESṀ30
- Will Lav turn on and/or speak out about abuse from MrGirl after the article comes out within 1 month?NOṀ10
- Will Destiny stream longer than 5 hours on March 13th?YESṀ10