Will there be a credible assassination attempt at a member of the US Congress, POTUS, VPOTUS, cabinet member, or executive branch department head this year? Former holders of these positions count as well. People who ran for these positions and lost (and never held one) do not count. Based on this initial list, I might add other qualifying positions; comment if I've missed anything. Edit: Also SCOTUS. Edit: "credible" means some chance of success. Mail attacks against a president don't count, but they might against someone without secret service protection. See my runthrough of recent public attempts on recent presidents and how I would have adjudicated them in the comments.

A few potential edge cases, and how I plan to adjudicate them if they come up:

1. Murder of a politician, with an unshared/unknown motive. If a politician is knifed by a junkie walking down a street that doesn't resolve "yes", but if a politician is found murdered I'll close the question and, in the absence of a likely motive which is unrelated to their political office, I'll resolve "yes" after a reasonable interval. Burden of proof will be on the "no" votes to show that it was not an assassination in this case.

2. Some hopelessly crazy person who thought they were trying to assassinate a politician but who never could have in a million years will be resolved as "yes" if charges are brought which are directly related to the attempt; not resolved otherwise. Edit: This question won't resolve "yes" for any plot, no matter how intricate, unless the attempted assassination process was actually begun.

3. The questions will close at the end of December if it hasn't resolved "yes" before then, but I'll hold off for a few weeks to make sure something late didn't get missed, or longer if there's still an ambiguous case pending.

Other edge cases will be resolved in the spirit of these general guidelines. I won't be voting in this market.

See "https://manifold.markets/DodgerPaschall/will-joe-biden-get-impeached-by-the?r=Tmlja0FsbGVu" for another attempt at this question. I'm donating my winnings to try and get it closer to what people thought it should be, by subsidizing this market.