Spicy tweet recently: https://twitter.com/stkirsch/status/1694430432358793298?s=21&t=V_5CznVFmXLjKj06hTnlcA

It obviously might be awhile before anything comes from this line of investigation. If there's no reasonably strong evidence by 1-1-2026 I'll resolve "no". If I judge the evidence strong I'll resolve "yes" on that date, or before if the evidence is peer reviewed and printed in a prestigious journal and goes unchallenged for awhile. In the absence of strong clarity on the question, I'll resolve to market or extend the resolution date depending on whether there's incipient research.

I'll refrain from betting because apparently we can't have conversations about vaccination without it being tribal.