Will cancellations at CDG exceed 100/day average over the week of June 7-13?

Question

Will be resolved using FlightAware data for CDG. 100 cancellations per day, on average, would be a huge increase over recent numbers. Some commentators as of mid April have suggested that widespread flight cancellations could hit Europe by June due to jet fuel shortages caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 42% chance (3 traders, as of Apr 16, 2026).

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