Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Neal Dunn dies before Mitch McConnell.

This market resolves to NO if Mitch McConnell dies before Neal Dunn.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by official announcements of death reported by major reputable news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times).

• Same-Day Deaths: If both individuals die on the same calendar day, the market will resolve based on the official time of death. If the precise sequence of deaths cannot be verified from official reports, the market will resolve to 50%.

• Timing: This market will remain open until the death of at least one of the two individuals is officially confirmed.

Background

• Mitch McConnell (born February 20, 1942) is the senior U.S. Senator from Kentucky. In mid-June 2026, he was hospitalized following a fall, which led to significant public speculation regarding his health and a period of rehabilitation.

• Neal Dunn (born February 16, 1953) is the U.S. Representative for Florida's 2nd congressional district. In early 2026, Dunn announced he would not seek re-election. It was subsequently disclosed in March 2026 that Dunn had received a terminal heart diagnosis, but underwent emergency surgery that corrected the immediate threat.

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