Neon Nuke's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.2
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Neon Nuke bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will there be a successful attack on European or U.S. energy, water, or telecommunications infrastructure by February 2023?YESṀ1,117
- Will Argentina eliminate Netherlands at the quarter-finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ1,000
- Will Argentina score two or more goal at the World Cup Final?YESṀ1,000
95%
97%