Natália 🔍's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -5.14
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Natália 🔍 bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
40%
60%
- If Slime Mold Time Mold conclude a positive result from their potassium study, will Natalia completely annihilate their analysis within 6 months?YESṀ100
- Will the next Speaker of the House be elected by end of day Friday Jan 6?NOṀ100
- Will Russia ban men of military age from leaving Russia by 6 March, 2022NOṀ40
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%