Will there be a second shooting event related to the Bondi Beach mass shooting within one year?
4
100Ṁ145
2026
14%
chance

On the 14th of December 2025, a terrorist mass shooting was carried out by two men at Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, targeting a Jewish community during a large Hannukah celebration


This is the largest mass shooting in Australia since the Port Arthur massacre almost 30 years ago, with 16 dead at the time of writing

I'll define a shooting event as one in which shots are fired at people, though not requiring deaths or injuries

If a shooting event occurs, resolution (re: whether it's related to the Bondi Beach shooting) will be based on official police statements

I won't bet on this question in case resolution is ambiguous

Related markets:

/Nat/was-there-a-third-person-involved-i

/Nat/were-the-firearms-used-in-the-bondi

What will be the government response to the Bondi shooting?

What was the intention of the Bondi Shooter?

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