Will Sufjan Stevens new album 'Javelin' get an 8 or above on Pitchfork?
resolved Oct 5

This market resolves YES if 'Javelin' by Sufjan Stevens gets a rating of 8 or above on Pitchfork. The market closes on Sunday after the album is released, as Pitchfork will likely release the review on Monday (I am open to changing the close date.)

I'm creating this market because I am incapable of forming my own opinion! Tell me what to think!

[Edit: Linked to Pitchfork]

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predicted YES

it can now be resolved YES

@postjawline Thanks, and sorry for the delay!

bought Ṁ50 of YES
predicted NO

@zQ4Z82W I'm ruined!

New track:

Four reviews in on metacritic all >80.

predicted NO

@JCE yeah but you know P4k has to be contrarian; they get off on that

predicted NO

@AlQuinn I would have thought so too, but maybe not? See Figure 2: http://luiscabral.net/economics/workingpapers/pitchfork%202021%20JIE.pdf

bought Ṁ10 of NO

"The album comes with a 48-page book of collages by Stevens (who also designed the record’s cover art) and related essays." I just threw up into my kombucha

Can you put a link to the reporting website in the description, please?

@SirCryptomind Absolutely, I have edited the description to include this! Sorry for not doing so sooner!

predicted YES

Let’s go Sufjan!!

predicted NO

Why is this trading so high?

bought Ṁ65 of YES

@BenjaminShindel this is my argument for yes (I strongly believe he will get a BNM):

This will be his first solo album since Carrie & Lowell in 2015. While Sufjans has done a lot of experimental stuff and collabs that don't review exceptionally, and he has plenty of low scores, his singer songwriter stuff does move the needle at P4K.

He currently has 6 Best New Albums on the site, a remarkable number. The first two singles both got a Best New Track on P4K. I suggest listening to them and reading the motivation behind the choices.

I predict the album will get a Best New Album review, focused on personal struggle and a "return to form". It has been quite a few years since Carrie & Lowell. While music is subjective, the two singles show growth as well. Sufjans is a storyteller, but he's also a passionate musician and it shows in the strange yet familiar arrangements of both singles.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@BokiLee fair points, but I'ma keep buying NO out of spite

Quite unrelated to the actual question, but:


Sufjan on Instagram: "Hi Friends. Quick update on my life. I’m very excited about having new music to share, but I just wanted to let you know that one of the reasons why I haven’t been able to participate in the press and promotion leading up to the release of Javelin is bc I am in the hospital. Last month I woke up one morning and couldn’t walk. My hands, arms and legs were numb and tingling and I had no strength, no feeling, no mobility. My brother drove me to the ER and after a series of tests—MRIs, EMGs, cat scans, X-rays, spinal taps (!), echo-cardiograms, etc.—the neurologists diagnosed me with an auto immune disorder called Guillian-Barre Syndrome. Luckily there’s treatment for this — they administer immuno-hemoglobin infusions for five days and pray that the disease doesn’t spread to the lungs, heart and brain. Very scary, but it worked. I spent about two weeks in Med/Surg, stuck in a bed, while my doctors did all the things to keep me alive and stabilize my condition. I owe them my life. On September 8, I was transferred to acute rehab, where I am now undergoing intensive physical therapy/occupational therapy, strength building etc. to get my body back in shape and to learn to walk again. It’s a slow process, but they say I will “recover,” it just takes a lot of time, patience, and hard work. Most people who have GBS learn to walk again on their own within a year, so I am hopeful. I’m only in my second week of rehab but it is going really well and I am working really hard to get back on my feet. I’m committed to getting better, I’m in good spirits, and I’m surrounded by a really great team. I want to be well! I’ll keep you posted as I progress. Thank you for your thoughts and prayers. And a huge shout out to all the incredible caretakers of the world working night and day to help us heal. They are living saints. Be well, be joyful, stay sane, stay safe. I love you. yours truly from a wheelchair XOXOXO Sufjan Stevens"
sufjan on September 20, 2023: "Hi Friends. Quick update on my life. I’m very excited about having new music to share, but I ju..."

@JCE That sounds absolutely terrifying. I hope he has a swift recovery ❤

@JCE And maybe not actually unrelated to the question if Pitchfork wants to make that a good story. "Sufjan's triumphant return to form even as he faces crisis from wheelchair"

@JCE that sounds awful, wishing him a swift recovery

predicted YES

@JCE Sad to read this😭 hope he'll be all right

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Going for NO because while good, the songs are very much in line with earlier work and Pitchfork (I believe) tends to value development strongly in the high range.

This is practically gambling though, I'm often surprised by Pitchfork reviews.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Music ain't math. Pitchfork editors & reviewers get to listen to albums earlier than we do. A new traditional Sufjans studio album is a big deal. It has been a while.

Both of his new singles are excellent and got Best New Track. Which hints at the album going hot at the office. Pitchfork is building hype for the inevitable Best New Album in Oktober.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@BokiLee be honest are you a Sufjan shill?

predicted YES

@Aboczjr Nope. I only like a few albums. I respect his discipline & creativity though. I haven't been excited about his music since Carrie & Lowell.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I'll have to listen but Sufjan has been sounding raspier on each album which I hate, which means P4 will love because they hate melody.

predicted YES

@AlQuinn tell that to Olivia Rodriguez

predicted NO

@BokiLee well, listened to the ones posted here, and as usual, his songs are decent. I just wish someone who knew how to sing would perform them instead; emphysema-boy needs to hand over the mic!

predicted YES
predicted YES

@AlQuinn 😂💀 to each his own, I like his voice a lot!

predicted NO
predicted YES

@AlQuinn hahaha brilliant