Will more Americans be shot on July 4, 2023 than July 4, 2022?
31
316
แน€630
resolved Jul 5
Resolved
NO

This market resolves YES if more than 790 people are reported as dead or wounded by the Gun Violence Archive. According to CBS (using the Gun Violence Archive Data), 220 people were shot and 570 people were injured. This market resolves NO if at most 790 are reported as dead or wounded by the Gun Violence Archive.

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The market title and market resolution criteria did not perfectly agree as noted below. Fortunately, there were so few shootings this fourth of July compared to last year that the resolution is unambiguously no.

If the resolution criteria was just July 4th then this year there were 29 killed and 109 injured, and last year there were 80 killed and 275 injured. If the resolution criteria were the whole weekend, then this year there were 195 killed and 515 injured (and this includes all days from Saturday to Tuesday) and last year there were 228 killed and 574 injured (and this includes all days from Saturday to Monday.) Shootings appear to be way down this July 4th.

bought แน€10,000 of NO

Just want to share that CBS said there were 790 were reported dead or wounded over a weekend, not just on Jul 4th, 2022.

So far, Jul 4th 2023 is still lower than Jul 4th 2022 anyways. But it doesn't look like there will be 790 people wounded or dead on Jul 4th, 2023

I intend to resolve this market tomorrow morning around 7 or 8. If you have any questions or concerns, I'm curious to hear them!

bought แน€10 of NO

@JimAusman to add on, as of this comment there are only 57 incidents (according to the archive) so far for July 4, 17 dead, 40 injured. Smells like peace boyos.