NLeseul's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.98
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when NLeseul bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will a hurricane hit the State of Florida any time during the month of September 2023?NOṀ200
- Before 2024, will I be able to publish a Wikipedia article on a history topic that stays up for 30 days and that has been written by AI?NOṀ50
- Will the Triforce be mentioned in any "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom" dialogue?NOṀ45
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%