Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the 12 months ending June 2025, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is greater than 2.5%. The CPI data is typically released in the second week of the following month. The relevant report can be found on the BLS website: Consumer Price Index News Release.

Background

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. It is a key indicator of inflation. Recent data indicates that the CPI increased by 2.4% over the 12 months ending March 2025, down from 2.8% in February 2025. (bls.gov)

Considerations

• Impact of Tariffs: The U.S. has implemented tariffs on various imported goods, which may contribute to higher consumer prices in the coming months. (reuters.com)

• Energy Prices: Fluctuations in energy prices, particularly gasoline, can significantly influence the overall CPI. A notable decline in gasoline prices contributed to the recent decrease in the CPI. (bls.gov)

• Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, including interest rate adjustments, can affect inflation trends. The Fed has maintained its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range while monitoring the economic impact of tariffs. (reuters.com)

Traders should monitor these factors, as they may influence the CPI and the outcome of this market.