Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the candidate who officially wins the Massachusetts Democratic primary for the United States Senate on September 1, 2026.

• Source of truth: The official election results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth.

• Unlisted Winners: Since addAnswersMode is disabled, if any candidate other than Ed Markey or Seth Moulton wins the Democratic primary, this market will resolve N/A.

• Delays/Cancellations: If the primary is postponed but held before the general election on November 3, 2026, the market will resolve based on the rescheduled primary. If it is canceled or postponed indefinitely past November 3, 2026, the market will resolve N/A.

Background

The 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary is a highly watched contest featuring:

• Ed Markey: The incumbent Senator who has represented Massachusetts in the Senate since 2013. Having turned 80 in July 2026, Markey faces questions regarding his age but has pledged that this will be his final six-year term if reelected.

• Seth Moulton: The U.S. Representative for Massachusetts's 6th congressional district since 2015. Moulton is challenging the incumbent on a platform of "generational change" and has criticized Markey's decision to seek another term.

Polling from mid-2026 indicates a competitive race, with Markey holding a single-digit lead over Moulton.