Which weight loss milestones will I hit by July 2024?
Jul 2
165 lbs
160 lbs
155 lbs
175 lbs
190 lbs
185 lbs
170 lbs
180 lbs

As a New Year's resolution, I decided to lose some weight. My plan is to lose weight for up to six months (January 1-July 1).

As some background, I have lost a significant amount of weight several times in the past. The most weight I've ever lost in a single attempt was 90 lbs, from 265 to 175, over a year. My lowest-ever adult weight (weekly average, not daily measurement) was 169.4.

In order for a milestone to be reached, my weekly average (measured Monday-Sunday, posted on the following Monday) must be equal to or below the milestone; if I dip below a milestone for a single daily weigh-in but the weekly average doesn't meet the milestone, it doesn't count. Once a milestone is reached, it resolves YES immediately; it doesn't matter if my weight then rebounds to above the milestone.

On July 1st, any unmet milestones immediately resolve NO.

I will be betting, but I will only buy YES shares, and I will never sell them.

You can ask any relevant questions in the comments and I will do my best to answer them.

I am in my 30s. I am 6'0" (technically 5' 11.75", but you can pry that last quarter inch from my cold, dead hands). I started this diet at 194.6 lbs on January 1st (weekly average from the previous week). I will update this description every Monday with my average weight from the previous week.

2024-01-01: 194.6 lbs

2024-01-08: 192.5 lbs

2024-01-15: 190.1 lbs

2024-01-22: 191.3 lbs

2024-01-29: 190.8 lbs

2024-02-05: 191.3 lbs

2024-02-12: 187.7 lbs

2024-02-19: 187.1 lbs

2024-02-26: 186.2 lbs

2024-03-04: 183.6 lbs

2024-03-11: 182.3 lbs

2024-03-18: 180.5 lbs

2024-03-25: 178.6 lbs

2024-04-01: 177.7 lbs

2024-04-08: 177.3 lbs

2024-04-15: 177.1 lbs

2024-04-22: 174.3 lbs

2024-04-29: 173.9 lbs

2024-05-06: 172.7 lbs

2024-05-13: 172.9 lbs

2024-05-20: 171.5 lbs

2024-05-27: 172.3 lbs

2024-06-03: 170.7 lbs

2024-06-10: 169.7 lbs

2024-06-17: 168.6 lbs

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NO on 165 is probably reasonably likely at this point. I think it's going to be pretty close, and I'm faced with the choice of whether or not to come off creatine for a few weeks, which I believe could be the deciding factor, but I'm currently leaning heavily against doing so, as it would make my weight measurements more or less useless in the first few weeks of the ensuing bulk, which almost certainly isn't worth the extra milestone.

bought Ṁ100 165 lbs NO

@NBAP Amazing job on hitting 170 already.

Adding a new failure condition for the last stint to help keep me disciplined: if I record a two-week average that is a net weight gain, then I'll wrap up early.

opened a Ṁ500 170 lbs YES at 90% order

I've put a YES limit order at 90% for 170 lbs.

Where are you aiming to stop?

@voodoo July 1st! I think it's unlikely that I hit a weight so low before that point that I decide to stop pre-emptively. My best assessment currently is that I think 170 is very likely, 165 is probably more likely than not, and 160 probably won't happen before July 1st.

bought Ṁ10 155 lbs NO

Great job! Very nice and steady descent.

Things are still going well but I won't be surprised if the scale doesn't drop for a week or two. My weight is up today after a couple days off the diet, and I'll probably have at least another couple of similar days over the coming weekends.

Had a significant drop this week. The big change was that I upped my number of daily steps (17k average daily steps compared to 8.5k average daily steps the week before), but I also increased my food intake to make sure my deficit never exceeded my calculated maximum allowable deficit (around 1200 kcals deficit, currently). I suspect that part of the large swing can just be attributed to last week's weight being inflated; I'm going to try to keep the high step count this week to get a better idea of what the actual resulting rate of weight loss is.

@NBAP What’s wrong with a calorie deficit below 1200 a day? You may feel fine and still maintain muscle mass at 800-900 (my personal experience, not a recommendation)

@Mattfr Nothing’s wrong with going slower. I’m just trying to go at a reasonably aggressive pace for a bit, and then I’ll slow down to a smaller deficit of around 500 kcals/d.

Congrats on the first milestone!

@voodoo Thanks! Stay tuned for more to come!

Progress has been stalled for several weeks, owing mostly to a couple of days per week of overeating which caused my weight to jump up and take a few days to come back down. I'm currently weighing in below 190 lbs (189 this morning), and have no plans for large meals in the next couple of weeks. So barring an unplanned deviation, I would say that 190 lbs is pretty likely to resolve YES within the next 2 weeks.

Please share your diet and workout/activity. Good luck! It’s totally worth it :)

@Mattfr Currently, I'm aiming to lose approximately 1% of my body weight per week. I eat mostly the same stuff every day. I get a lot of protein in the form of liquid calories (protein shakes and EAAs). I have some fibre cereal daily, as well as about 40 g of protein from seitan. Also, I have some pumpkin seeds daily as a snack. Recently I've started adding either oat bran or boiled potatoes for satiety. In the future, if satiety gets even harder or if I need to drop my calories lower, I'll add in riced cauliflower and broccoli.

I do resistance training 3-4 times per week, typically in the form of gym sessions that last 45-60 minutes, comprising several sets each of 3-4 compound lifts (from squat/leg press, RDLs, bench press, shoulder press, rows, lat pulldowns).

I do 2-3 cardio sessions per week, where I get on a stationary bike and keep my heart rate in the 120-140 BPM zone for 30 minutes. I might increase this gradually over time.

I get around 7000 steps on an average weekday (in the winter, at least; will be more in the spring), and significantly less on most weekend days.

All told, I'm usually eating around 1800-2200 kcals per day, and I burn somewhere in the neighbourhood of 2800-3200 kcals on a typical day.

@NBAP Geez, great program! How did you even get to 194lbs in the first place? What’s your body fat%?

@NBAP You got this. I’m the same height and probably older. 175-180 is easy to maintain, lower than that takes work but if you stick to your plan you got it.

@Mattfr My weight has fluctuated a lot as an adult. In university, I ballooned up to 265. Lost 90 lbs to get down to 175 (just through diet and exercise). Weight came back on over several years, getting back up to 250 or so. A few years ago I got back on track and got down to 170. Fell off the wagon over Christmas break in 2021 and got back up in the 195-205 range, where I've hovered since.

Hard to know my exact body fat percentage. I've got a fair amount of fat on my lower abdomen (no abs in sight), but my last DXA scan (when I was at 180 lbs) put me at 17.5% body fat, which was lower than I expected at the time. Additionally, I always measure as surprisingly lean on callipers, so maybe I'm just inclined to overestimate.

@NBAP Awesome. My take on it that given your height and your body fat, it’ll start getting much harder around 165-160 and you may plateau there unless you cut more calories. I think you’ll get there though! Pls keep us updated on any changes to your diet and workouts. Good luck :)

@Mattfr I’m not sure 160 is healthy for that height honestly.

@voodoo In terms of BMI, it's still well within the healthy range, so I'm not worried about health problems. But if I start feeling that I can't go lower without losing a lot of muscle, I won't go any further.

@voodoo I’m 5’10 and aiming for 155 myself, currently 16.9% body fat. I am down 20 lbs since Thanksgiving and I feel great :) To me, a healthy weight is a matter of how anyone and their bodies feel. I agree 150 would become a bit low. As long as enough muscle stays (which with all the protein intake and workouts indicated above should be the case), i don’t see anything wrong with aiming for 160 here.

Good luck!