The game ends at the close date (or I may reserve the right to extend the date but there will be at least a week of notice and, of there are at least 10 traders, a vote on whether it should be extended.)

The resolution is based on the probability:

If 0-9%, the market resolves YES

if 10-49%, the market resolves NO

50% means an end date extension

if 51-90%, the market resolves YES

On 91-100%, the market resolves NO

In this way, the market results in a situation where the resolution matches where the money is. But watch out! If you go to far, it will resolve in the opposite direction!

I'm actually really excited to see where this goes (assuming enough people actually participate)

Ask me any questions!