On August 28th, the French authorities released Durov on bail, with the conditions that he does not leave the country, and checks in with authorities regularly.
https://deepnewz.com/us-elections/trump-to-appear-on-lex-fridman-s-podcast-4-million-listeners-part-strategy-to
Given his immense resources, and support for his release by many, including the UAE government, will Durov leave France by October 1st?
The market will resolve YES if
Durov is confirmed to leave the country for any reason
He does not need to flee illegally to resolve as YES -- he can make a deal with the French government
Also if the French government hands him over (for any reason, including prosecution in another country)
If no such evidence is clear by October 2nd, we will resolve this as NO.
In the small chance he is missing... we will give an extra week to resolve the market. Also if Durov dies in France, that is NO and if he dies outside of France that is YES.
1,000
3.00
I'd be very surprised if he's not gone by the end of the week. Only uncertainty is whether the French police is closely following him or not.