On July 19th, Wall Street Journal writer Evan Gershkovich was sentenced to 16 years in a Russian prison, on charges of espionage.
https://deepnewz.com/russia/russian-court-sentences-wsj-reporter-evan-gershkovich-to-16-years-high-security

The US government has called for his release, as have media figures like Tucker Carlson. In his interview with Putin, Tucker asked for Gershkovich's release. Putin said that this is a matter between intelligence services, as the journalist was clearly also a spy. Indicating both his willingness to negotiate, but also that the US needed to give something for his release.

While it seems unlikely the Gershkovich will serve a large portion of his sentence, will he be released by end of 2024?

The market will resolve as YES if
Gershkovich is released from Russian custody by end of 2024

OR if that is announced and confirmed by the Russian government OR strong sourcing outside of the government [specifically the Wall Street Journal or equivalent]

In other words, after the election (or possibly before) -- will a deal be reached to release Evan Gershkovich from Russian custody, to return to the US.

If he dies in custody -- G-d forbid -- the market will resolve as NO.