What will happen after the Julian Assange plea deal announced on June 25th? Multi-question.
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33
Ṁ9688
resolved Nov 6
Resolved
YES
Assange will be freed from UK jail by July?
Resolved
YES
Assange will set foot in the US by November?
Resolved
YES
A US judge will "sign off" on Assange plea deal by November?
Resolved
YES
Assange will set foot in Australia by November?
Resolved
NO
Biden will pardon Assange?
Resolved
NO
Biden will mention Assange in official briefing (or debate)?
Resolved
NO
Another country (not US, not UK) will issue international arrest warrant for Assange?
Resolved
NO
Assange will appear on Joe Rogan by November?
Resolved
NO
Assange will appear on Tucker Carlson by November?
Resolved
NO
Assange will be incarcerated by another country (not US, not UK) before November?
Resolved
NO
Assange will set foot in Russia / Belarus before November?

All questions will resolve before the US election (November 5th). Except those stated as resolving faster.

Resolution will be based on consensus of media reports -- people send me relevant links as needed.

I may add more independent questions later as requested, although the plan is to be comprehensive here.

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"The criminal case of international intrigue, which had played out for years in major world stages of Washington and London, came to a surprise end in a most unusual setting with Assange, 52, entering his plea Wednesday morning in federal court in Saipan, the capital of the Northern Mariana Islands.

The American commonwealth in the Pacific is relatively close to Assange’s native Australia and accommodated his desire to avoid entering the continental United States.

The deal required the iconoclastic internet publisher to admit guilt to a single felony count but also permitted him to return to Australia without any time in an American prison. The judge sentenced him to the five years he’d already spent behind bars in the United Kingdom, fighting extradition to the United States on an Espionage Act indictment that could have carried a lengthy prison sentence in the event of a conviction. He was holed up for seven years before that in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London."

https://apnews.com/article/assange-justice-department-plea-wikileaks-saipan-australia-00eb380879ff636cc9b916f82f82ed40

I don't 100% know if this counts as entering the US. Will have to look at precedent. I should have made this clear ahead of time.

Probably counts as US -- I suppose you need a passport and clear US customs. Same as Guam or other Pacific islands...

Added more subsidy. Will do again if this market takes off a bit. Please vote on your favorite questions.

The aim is to have a good Assange-related market, with relatively soon resolution (November, before election).

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