Greg Brockman returning to OpenAI. How long will he last?
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11
Ṁ3520
2025
89%
Brockman will return to OpenAI by December 1st 2024
65%
Brockman announced OpenAI departure by June 1st 2025
60%
Credible multiple reports that Brockman is talking with Anthropic, Google, or anther competitor [published by multiple sources] before Jan 6th 2025
59%
Brockman announces joining competitor by June 1st 2025
59%
Brockman involved in a non-trivial lawsuit with OpenAI -- in any significant role including called as witness, or named a as plaintiff or as defendant -- by June 1st 2025
57%
Brockman joins existing competitor company (not a new startup) by June 1st 2025 [and leaving OpenAI]
56%
Brockman will go on leave again or become an advisor (or other diminished role) before Jan 6th 2025 [or leaves company entirely]
55%
Brockman will announce his departure from OpenAI before Jan 6th 2025
44%
Brockman will be actively at OpenAI on Jan 6th 2025 (not on leave again)
41%
Brockman announced co-founding new company by June 1st 2025 [and leaving OpenAI]
39%
Brockman rebukes Sam Altman or OpenAI leadership in print or on X or in an interview by June 1st 2025
8%
Brockman announced OpenAI departure by December 1st 2024

It is reported that Greg Brockman will return from personal leave "next month" -- presumably before December, and in 2024.

https://deepnewz.com/ai/greg-brockman-to-return-to-openai-next-month-amid-leadership-changes-murati-s-ffd1a512

How long will his return last? And will it even happen? Given that in Greg's absence

  • OpenAI appears to function just fine

  • Every other early employee or executive has left (or at least most of them)

  • Most "head of" roles left or were replaced

  • All the co-founders other than Sam Altman have left

  • Sam Altman is reported to negotiating a $10B package out of the company re-forming deal

For consistency, for all of these options...

Assume the default is NO. The burden of proof is on YES, and will be resolved through clear and multiple media reports OR directly from OpenAI or Sam Altman (on blog or on X).

How do we know if Greg Brockman came back to OpenAI before December? Multiple media reports, Sam Altman, OpenAI or Greg Brockman will tell us that.

What if the reports disagree? We will go with the most senior source (starting with Sam Altman, then OpenAI official blog and X account) but also with common sense.

If there is a single report and no confirmation... we default to NO. Burden of proof is on YES in every option.

Also note that generally speaking, we look at the date of the announcement. If Brockman announces he is leaving OpenAI... we count the date of announcement not his leaving date. Although we wait a few days for him to change his mind. As OpenAI has hit some undo buttons in the past on leadership changes.

If you have a problem with judgement in unlikely close cases, or with me betting this market, this market isn't for you ❤️

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bought Ṁ50 Brockman announced O... NO

Possibly too many questions. But let me know if any other interesting ones I missed!

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