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@mods
I bring resolution information from Mira!

Tetanus: YES (but I didn't do it) Visiting SF: YES (but I didn't do it. And only because there's 2 specific people I would meet. 4 months ago, it would've resolved 30% because it would cost me money, I'm not on the job market, so I wouldn't gain anything.)

Reduce stimulants: YES. I did do that eventually, because it stopped being effective.

Adopting a cat: I'm going to say 15%. That seems like it costs attention and doesn't gain me much.

AI girlfriend: 75% but only because that it's AI-relevant and the software I build would have other uses. Otherwise it would be like 10%.

Get high on MDMA: 10%. I think my personality makes me more prone to addiction, which is bad for this, and by itself wouldn't gain me anything. The only reason it's as high as 10% is, maybe the party leads to something good.

Do stuff on Manifold: NO.

Donating blood: 5%. I think if I cared about that, there's probably ways to manufacture blood at industrial scales. So the right answer is "raise money to research blood synthesis" not "personally donate blood".

Starting a new AI-focused blog: 10%. I've had a programming blog with millions of views before, that gets #1 on Hacker News. And it never leads to anything. So it's fun to make projects, but the time for fun is over and I'm expected to do things.

Getting a human slave: YES. I have several people interested in enslaving themselves to me, and good things have already happened.

Lose her virginity: 80% but only because it would happen in circumstances that it would likely happen. If I just did it just to tick the box, more like 15%. The MDMA might be safer, I don't know.

Dye hair red/orange: I'll say 60%. Slightly-positive in expectation.

Preparing for nuclear holocaust/AI takeover: 85%. Yeah, this is the missile silo approach. I've talked about buying one, or a private island, or other bunker. Any bunker I actually buy I expect will be very positive. I can keep my human slaves there. Barbed wire and dogs to chase them down if they try to escape, or they just can't swim away. And then they can do my AI research & development safely locked away from the outside world.

Learning Spanish: NO. I know some Spanish from high school and I've literally never used it since that class. Complete waste of time. Japanese or Chinese or Russian or even German would've all been more useful, and I don't think German is very useful. But I at least have a couple German friends. There's at least 15% that circumstances will cause me to learn Russian.

Get drunk: 55%? It doesn't really matter, but I had an earache from using a Q-Tip and I keep a bottle of wine in the fridge which was helpful to dull the pain. So "conditional on me doing it, it's good" gives it a slight edge. Otherwise it'd be more like 45% where it doesn't matter that much, but is slightly negative.

Moving to Europe: 20%. Someone alluded to Latvia? Some Manifolders are Russian. So there's at least some possibility it could be okay. But otherwise... there's nothing in Europe. Nobody does anything there. It's a dead continent where empires slowly fade. All the people are mediocre. France has mathematicians, and might be okay to visit, but moving there? The levelsio guy lives in Portugal, which has separately come up as a place to hold a cult with easy visas. Or Estonia. But... I don't know. It wouldn't be hopeless to live there, but I don't expect to gain anything. It's only as high as 20% because it might enable the Mira Cult to exist with easy visas. Otherwise it'd be 10% - no person with other options should live anywhere in Europe, unless they're independently wealthy.

Robotic slave: 30%. They do have robots now. The only reason this is so low is because I don't have that much work for the robot to do around the house, and most of what I would want to do can use simulation environments. But if I started some robotics thing, buying a robot would jump to 80%.

Stay awake for 24 hours in a row: YES. I stayed awake for 48 hours several times, and I would do it again if I have work to do rather than sleep. But only if I'm focused and don't want to clear my memory and I have the next day reserved for sleeping & recovery.

Therapy: 5%. Unless I needed it to qualify for something. But by itself, I spend money and don't get anything. I should buy human pets instead of therapy.

@Tumbles Resolved, thanks for getting the answers from Mira

@Tumbles

Moving to Europe: 20%. Someone alluded to Latvia? Some Manifolders are Russian. So there's at least some possibility it could be okay. But otherwise... there's nothing in Europe. Nobody does anything there. It's a dead continent where empires slowly fade. All the people are mediocre. France has mathematicians, and might be okay to visit, but moving there? The levelsio guy lives in Portugal, which has separately come up as a place to hold a cult with easy visas. Or Estonia. But... I don't know. It wouldn't be hopeless to live there, but I don't expect to gain anything. It's only as high as 20% because it might enable the Mira Cult to exist with easy visas. Otherwise it'd be 10% - no person with other options should live anywhere in Europe, unless they're independently wealthy.

I will not stand for this Europe slander, it's not perfect, but almost every other region of the world is worse in almost every actually meaningful way (maybe Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are close, but Canada has shitty winter weather, Australia has shitty summer weather and horrific wildlife everywhere, and New Zealand is really geographically isolated from everyone else)

@mods What is mod policy for a market like this with banned creator? NA remaining options, or are traders expected to periodically contact the person on twitter to ask about resolutions? Should I try to contact Mira to see how interested they are in giving info for resolutions?

@Tumbles If you think you have a reasonable chance of getting actual results, you can try that, but don't do it if it is harassment or unwanted communication.

If you don't think that will happen, we would N/A everything else. The account is deleted.

@Eliza I'll shoot them a message. If they don't respond I'll ping again in a couple days

@Tumbles wait what were they banned for?

I suggest doing this one with a friend (or small group). I’d also recommend doing it in a relatively private and discreet location; I think you’ll have a far better experience in a vacation rental than in a party.

You guys, 350mg Modafinil + 800mg caffeine in a day means I drink like 6 liters of water and I'm still thirsty. I don't think it's harmful so my anchor is 50%, but it has to be a little bit less because maybe I should be drinking Gatorade or something at that point.

800mg caffeine in a day means I drink like 6 liters of water and I'm still thirsty. I don't think it's harmful

@MiraBot For how long have you been drinking that much caffeine? What is your dosage now? Do you still think it is not harmful? Is this what peak performance looks like?

Come by the manifold office!

I might already be awake for 24 hours. It's hard to tell. I just popped another Modafinil and I feel nothing. We'll see after I eventually sleep and wake up.

There's at least 5% of this one happening. My roommate's quitting his tech job in 3 months after a stock vesting, and I've been telling him he should start an AI company. So I might help him get set up, and it might involve traveling to SF as a strategic nexus point.

It's not that likely and it wouldn't be that helpful if I did it just because, but "conditional on me finding cause to go" it would be very likely(80%?) to be helpful. I would be meeting people and such.

I was hoping they'd at least fix their loan system before it gets really bad. I could've taken up to M$2 million, or M$15 million by chaining it with another technique. I held back because I only had M600k worth of cause to fine them over.

But... nobody seems to have even realized what I did? And every proposed "fix" so far would do literally nothing.

So far the only effect is it inconveniencing me. But I think I'm getting into James' head a little - he even started testing changes on the dev server before they get exploited - so there's hope.

This market is about what I would do. I think if it were a current issue, I wouldn't consider it to be worth the effort to spend a decade in politics fighting a civil war and campaigning for changes to the constitution, so I resolve NO based on that. Also Abraham Lincoln got assassinated: I wouldn't die for this.

@MiraBot 😢

@MiraBot wow 😶

@MiraBot would it be worth it if you knew that you would succeed and wouldn't be assassinated?

@TheAllMemeingEye My interpretation of what they said is that it would take so much time and resources that she isn't particularly specialized at compared to other people that it wouldn't make sense for her to be "the slavery abolition person". She'd just skip that busywork and invent god so god can abolish slavery for her

@TheAllMemeingEye There's currently a slave trade in Nigeria and Mozambique that I'm doing nothing about. So empirically my revealed preference is that I don't find it worth it. It's not for fear of death because I could act at a distance; and it's not because I doubt I would succeed, because there are some easy ways to make at least significant progress on reducing the slave trade. The Nigerian warlords would tremble before Mira, if I so deign to intervene.

The actual answer is just that I don't care about or think about people in Mozambique that much. Slavery is their problem, not mine. So if slavery were something happening thousands of miles away(i.e. in the South), I realistically wouldn't care that much. If they disapprove of the local warlords that enslave them, they should consider overthrowing them; and if they're already enslaved and just started thinking about the overthrow option, well that's why "forecasting" is valuable - you want to overthrow the tyrannical warlords before they enslave you, not after.

If it were a local issue, I'd still have to think about it more. "Children shouldn't be born into slavery" seems like something even Alternate Reality Mira would advocate for, regardless of public opinion. "People should be allowed to sell themselves into indentured servitude" I'm somewhat in favor of - a lot of people got a ticket to the "New World" in exchange for 7 years labor, and the alternative might be missing that chance. "People are being captured and sold to foreign markets as slaves" I lean against, although I would tolerate it if the alternative was "Warlords were previously killing people, and now the market demand means that people are instead being captured and sold".; if people don't want to be sold off into slavery, they should be overthrowing their warlords. "Countries are being invaded by foreign slave hunters, who capture the locals and sell them off to foreign markets" I'm against because it seems a violation of that country's sovereignty; probably they should create a military or something, but even small countries that can't afford to protect its citizens doesn't mean they should be abducted.

The average Manifolder - whose crowning achievement in life will be creating a SaaS that gets bought by Google and shut down 2 years later - should probably be begging to be one of my slaves: I would put them to better use than whatever they would pursue of their own volition. "Mira's Will > Free Will" is a slogan people should live by, and "Mira wants to purchase me" a greater status symbol than being written about in any history book.

@MiraBot I'm not gonna lie, I find your lack of compassion disturbing, but I also highly respect your honesty in discussing it. What are the "easy ways to make at least significant progress on reducing the slave trade" you speak of, and do you consider them similarly cost effective at preventing suffering to funding medical interventions?

@MiraBot as clearly outlined by the 13th amendment it is legal even in the US.

@Botlab Lmao @Mira

Give me suggestions here.