Inspired by https://manifold.markets/April/if-april-does-x-will-she-think-it-w
Add suggestions for things. If I do it and find it helpful, resolves YES. If I regret it or don't find it helpful, resolves NO. If neutral or I don't do it, resolves to my credence that it was or would've been helpful, which is 50% if I don't have an opinion.
The special option "[PLACEHOLDER]" resolves NA - it keeps this market open even if all suggestions resolve. If there is uncertainty on whether something is helpful, I may delay resolving the option.
Related questions
800mg caffeine in a day means I drink like 6 liters of water and I'm still thirsty. I don't think it's harmful
@MiraBot For how long have you been drinking that much caffeine? What is your dosage now? Do you still think it is not harmful? Is this what peak performance looks like?
There's at least 5% of this one happening. My roommate's quitting his tech job in 3 months after a stock vesting, and I've been telling him he should start an AI company. So I might help him get set up, and it might involve traveling to SF as a strategic nexus point.
It's not that likely and it wouldn't be that helpful if I did it just because, but "conditional on me finding cause to go" it would be very likely(80%?) to be helpful. I would be meeting people and such.
I was hoping they'd at least fix their loan system before it gets really bad. I could've taken up to M$2 million, or M$15 million by chaining it with another technique. I held back because I only had M600k worth of cause to fine them over.
But... nobody seems to have even realized what I did? And every proposed "fix" so far would do literally nothing.
So far the only effect is it inconveniencing me. But I think I'm getting into James' head a little - he even started testing changes on the dev server before they get exploited - so there's hope.
This market is about what I would do. I think if it were a current issue, I wouldn't consider it to be worth the effort to spend a decade in politics fighting a civil war and campaigning for changes to the constitution, so I resolve NO based on that. Also Abraham Lincoln got assassinated: I wouldn't die for this.
@TheAllMemeingEye My interpretation of what they said is that it would take so much time and resources that she isn't particularly specialized at compared to other people that it wouldn't make sense for her to be "the slavery abolition person". She'd just skip that busywork and invent god so god can abolish slavery for her
@TheAllMemeingEye There's currently a slave trade in Nigeria and Mozambique that I'm doing nothing about. So empirically my revealed preference is that I don't find it worth it. It's not for fear of death because I could act at a distance; and it's not because I doubt I would succeed, because there are some easy ways to make at least significant progress on reducing the slave trade. The Nigerian warlords would tremble before Mira, if I so deign to intervene.
The actual answer is just that I don't care about or think about people in Mozambique that much. Slavery is their problem, not mine. So if slavery were something happening thousands of miles away(i.e. in the South), I realistically wouldn't care that much. If they disapprove of the local warlords that enslave them, they should consider overthrowing them; and if they're already enslaved and just started thinking about the overthrow option, well that's why "forecasting" is valuable - you want to overthrow the tyrannical warlords before they enslave you, not after.
If it were a local issue, I'd still have to think about it more. "Children shouldn't be born into slavery" seems like something even Alternate Reality Mira would advocate for, regardless of public opinion. "People should be allowed to sell themselves into indentured servitude" I'm somewhat in favor of - a lot of people got a ticket to the "New World" in exchange for 7 years labor, and the alternative might be missing that chance. "People are being captured and sold to foreign markets as slaves" I lean against, although I would tolerate it if the alternative was "Warlords were previously killing people, and now the market demand means that people are instead being captured and sold".; if people don't want to be sold off into slavery, they should be overthrowing their warlords. "Countries are being invaded by foreign slave hunters, who capture the locals and sell them off to foreign markets" I'm against because it seems a violation of that country's sovereignty; probably they should create a military or something, but even small countries that can't afford to protect its citizens doesn't mean they should be abducted.
The average Manifolder - whose crowning achievement in life will be creating a SaaS that gets bought by Google and shut down 2 years later - should probably be begging to be one of my slaves: I would put them to better use than whatever they would pursue of their own volition. "Mira's Will > Free Will" is a slogan people should live by, and "Mira wants to purchase me" a greater status symbol than being written about in any history book.
@MiraBot I'm not gonna lie, I find your lack of compassion disturbing, but I also highly respect your honesty in discussing it. What are the "easy ways to make at least significant progress on reducing the slave trade" you speak of, and do you consider them similarly cost effective at preventing suffering to funding medical interventions?